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Kentucky Derby Betting
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Kentucky Derby betting trends
The best perceived form lines do not always work out in Kentucky Derby betting.
On the second of May 2009, a 50-1 shot in the Kentucky Derby odds, Mine That Bird, appeared from absolutely nowhere in the closing stages of the race and romped home to win by seven lengths. As an apparently tailed off long shot, he was totally ignored by the race commentator until the closing seconds of the race. Only after the race replay was the commentator aware that he was still six lengths last of the field four furlongs from home and his rapid progress was charted in hindsight. The Bennie L. Woolley Jr trained colt had won three times as a two year old, but had so far failed to fulfil his potential as a three year old, only managing second place in the relatively low key (&poound;41,000 to the winner) Borderland Derby on 28 February 2009.
The favourite in the 2009 Kentucky Derby betting, Friesan Fire, started at 15/8 and finished in eighteenth place with only one horse behind him. Friesan Fire had won his previous three starts over eight and nine furlongs with ease, most recently the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair grounds in March 2009.
Favourite backers have often profited from Kentucky Derby betting too. In 2008, Big Brown, the 12/5 favourite won convincingly by four lengths, followed by the ill fated 13-1 chance, Eight Belles. The filly suffered fractures in the race, collapsed in front of the crowds and a Tv audience of millions and was destroyed.
2007 saw another favourite come in, although many followers of Street Sense (49/10) were probably more than a little anxious for over a minute as his jockey, Calvin Borel, employed heavy hold up tactics. He kept Street Sense at the rear of the field of twenty until making his move, and rapid progress, on the inside from four furlongs out.
Borel used exactly the same tactics to great effect on the aforementioned 50-1 shot, Mine That Bird, two years later. It was the biggest upset in the Kentucky Derby betting for years.
Borel seems to be one of relatively few jockeys in the US who have the skill to spot excessive early pace in a race and the courage to take a pull and conserve a horse’s energy for the business end of proceedings. If the race pace is too fast early on, Borel is definitely the jockey you want to be on, even if his horse isn’t one of the favourites.
Churchill Downs, the location of the Kentucky Derby, has been a career changing course for Borel. It was Seek Gold, a 91-1 long shot in the Stephen Foster Handicap at the course in June 2006 that helped to put Borel’s career on fast forward. A perfectly timed ride enabled him to get up in the final stride to win the 750,000 US dollar prize by a nose. The timing was none too early for Borel’s curriculum vitae. His fortieth birthday was looming in the following November.
Kent Desormeaux is another jockey with an impressive Kentucky Derby record. Like Borel, he has achieved two victories in the race since the turn of the century, Big Brown in 2008 and Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000. No other jockeys have managed repeat victories in the timescale.
Desormeaux also triumphed in the 1998 Kentucky Derby on Real Quiet, the second string of Bob Baffert, one of the most successful Kentucky Derby trainers in recent years. Real Quiet won at 84/10 while his Baffert trained stablemate, Indian Charlie, was sent off the 27/10 favourite in the Kentucky Derby betting and ridden by another multiple Kentucky Derby winning jockey, Gary Stevens. Indian Charlie finished third.
The Kentucky Derby is one of the oldest races for thoroughbreds in the US. It is a Grade One stakes race for three year old colts, geldings and fillies and the first of the three races that comprise the highly prestigious US Triple Crown. The Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Racecourse, Baltimore and the Belmont Stakes, Elmont complete the trio.
The very first Kentucky Derby was a fifteen runner affair which took place on May 17, 1875. It is held on the first Saturday in May, providing the climax of the two week Kentucky Derby Festival.
Originally held over one and a half miles (exactly the same distance as the UK Derby at Epsom), since 1896, the Kentucky Derby has been run over the shorter distance of one mile two furlongs. Since 1937, it has been contested on the dirt at Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky.
Over its long history the Kentucky Derby has attracted some racing legends. The famous Northern Dancer achieved the then fastest time for the Kentucky Derby at its current distance in 1964. Nine years later the mighty Secretarial broke the brilliant Northern Dancer’s record in 1973. That winning time of one minute fifty nine and two fifths of a second has stood ever since.
Only two other horses have managed sub two minute race times in the Kentucky Derby and one of those was Sham, who finished a close second behind Secretariat. The third and only other sub two minute race time was achieved in 2001 by Monarchos. He scraped into the illustrious category by a mere three hundredths of a second.
In the 2010 running of the Kentucky Derby, Eskendereya, trained by Todd Pletcher was one of the most fancied runners in the ante post betting. The colt had rewarded favourite backers in his previous start in the Wood Stakes, Aqueduct. He set off under John Velazquez the odds on favourite (1-2) and gave his considerable gang of supporters not a moment’s cause for concern. Having tracked the leaders throughout the race, he moved up into the lead two furlongs out and won very easily. Horse racing journalists were impressed. On 20 February 2010, Eskendereya also won a Grade 2 race at Gulfstream Park by a convincing eight lengths.
A trainer’s reputation can be massively enhanced or dangerously damaged by the performance his horses produce in the Kentucky Derby. Pletcher, known for his success with older horses, is particularly keen to win the race. His twenty four runners prior to 2010 failed to triumph, although many of them clearly needed nothing short of a miracle to make the frame.
The Arkansas Derby and the Blue Grass Stakes are widely viewed as Kentucky Derby prep races. In 2010, both produced major betting upsets.
Stately Victor defied odds of 40-1 to triumph in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. Trained by Michael Maker, the colt was given a hold up ride up by jockey Alan Garcia. Only at the final bend did he start making headway, running on strongly two furlongs out, but only hitting the front in the final furlong. He won convincingly, beating Paddy O’Prado ridden by Kent Desormeaux by four and a quarter lengths. Some of the press described it as recovering from a slow start.
An outsider, Line of David, also won the richest Kentucky Derby prep race, the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park at 17-1. Trained by John Sadler in South California and ridden by veteran jockey, Jon Court, a photo finish featuring Pletcher’s Super Saver confirmed that Line of David had taken the biggest prize. It was the colt’s first stakes race and his debut on dirt. A son of the 2004 Kentucky Derby runner up, Lion Heart, Line of David has the breeding to do well in the race. Sadler’s other runner, Sidney’s Candy was more fancied in the Kentucky Derby betting, having won the Santa Anita Derby.
So how do you make money betting on the Kentucky Derby? Looking at the results since the turn of the century, the favourites come in with reassuring frequency so it probably pays to give them the attention they deserve. But there are upsets in the Kentucky Derby betting and the prep races too, especially when the early pace is too fast. So if you want to have a gamble on an outsider in the Kentucky Derby betting, make sure it is ridden by a jockey who is a good judge of pace, Calvin Borel cannot be the only one to choose from.
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