Issue March 24-28, 2005

NCAA Men's Championship

We’re down to a sweet 16 and already, Kansas, one of my Final Four picks, have been reduced to watching the action on TV, after being beaten by Bucknell, a team which hadn’t won a tournament game in 110 years! Normally there is at least one team who inflicts an embarrassing loss on one of the big boys but, in what is becoming one of the most exciting NCAA tournaments in years, ‘Cinderella’ teams such as N.C. State, Texas Tech, West Virginia, Villanova and not forgetting Wisconsin-Milwaukee, have all made it through to the second week. When you think there is no pressure on these teams to perform, the scenario is set to pull off an upset, while their fan base is also likely to be boosted by rival teams cheering for the underdog.

All four No.1 seeds are in the tournament, but don’t expect that to last long. Washington probably has the toughest third round draw against red-hot Louisville (on an 11 game win-streak), in a game where it can be easily argued that Washington are underdogs. My original outright selection, Illinois (now 12/5 from 3/1 for the title), must now play the lowest remaining seeds, the No.12 Panthers and, the way things have been going in this tournament, anything can happen.

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Players Championship

Th Mar 24 – 12:00 pm EST (ESPN)/17:00 GMT

Fr Mar 25 – 12:00 pm EST (ESPN)/17:00 GMT

Sa Mar 26 – 2:00 pm EST (NBC)/19:00 GMT

Su Mar 27 – 1:30 pm EST (NBC)/18:30 GMT

This week’s event is right up there with the four Majors, and as a spectacle it is arguably the most exciting to watch, with the signature par 3 ‘island’ 17th one of the most intimidating holes in golf. The European contingent is particularly strong this year, with both Clarke and Harrington holding excellent claims after good form in the States this year. Of the two, Pod has to be the pick this week on the back of his maiden US Tour win in the Honda Classic. The manner of that victory - over world No.1 Vijay Singh – gives him every bit as imposing credentials as the four ahead of him in the betting, especially considering the relatively poor records of Els and Mickelson in this event (no wins and only six top-tens). A prolific bridesmaid in the past (2nd 26 times), including at the Players Champs for the past two years, he could now be ready to move up to the next level. He looks a stonking each way bet at 20/1 (1/4 odds 1st 5), while he can also be backed at 22/1 in our brand new enhanced win only odds market!

Stephen Ames, 13th, 17th and runner-up the last three years must also go on the shortlist. His closing 80 at the Bay Hill last week is slightly off-putting, but his price as a consequence has been pushed out (80/1). His ability to play well in adverse weather could also be a factor this week, with thunderstorms on Friday, and generally quite windy conditions forecast during the week.

A stat that illustrates the quality of this event is that all but four of the winners since 1982 have also won Majors in their careers. Ok, so my picks so far do not yet fit this mould, but I fully expect Harrington to be a serious contender for Major honors in the next few years. His current price of 25/1 for this year’s Masters (starts 7th April) could well be worth taking now, in anticipation of a good showing this week. A couple of ‘old-stagers’ who do fit into the category of past Major winners competing this week are Steve Elkington and Corey Pavin. Neither are likely winners of this event, but could be worthy of support in our ‘Top Australasian’ and ‘Top American’ markets at 16/1 and 125/1 respectively. Both are coming off their best finishes for a long while – Elk was 12th at Doral and Pavin 5th at Bay Hill.

Don’t forget we shall be betting in-running throughout this event but, with players finding it difficult to play catch-up on this course, it could pay not to look to far down the leader board after the first couple of rounds. Another interesting betting aspect of this event is our ‘Round Leader’ market, which is updated after each of the first three rounds. For example, if you fancy Pod to get off to a flyer then you can back him at 16/1 to be leader in the clubhouse after day one. In our ‘Big 4 vs The Rest’ market, the rest of the field is a strong fancy at 4/7 considering the overall course form of the big 4, and the fact that Els is still nursing a hip injury!

Nigel’s Players’ Picks:
Outright - Padraig Harrington @ 20/1 & Stephen Ames @ 80/1 (both each-way)
Masters Outright – Harrington now at 25/1 (each-way)
Top Aussie - Steve Elkington @ 16/1
Top US – Corey Pavin @ 125/1 (each-way)

American Idol 4 Winner

Tuesdays 8:00 pm EST (FOX)/Wednesday 1:00 GMT

A couple of weeks has passed now since the unfortunate news that my original ‘get in the game’ selection for Idol, Mario Vasque, has quit the programme. In that time, the betting list has been revised, and the one that takes my eye now is Bo Rice at 9/4. Bo has remained in the contest despite the competition of another rocker, Constantine Maroulis, and should be able to pick up more fans once the latter is gone. In the hope that the voting public will tire of Anwar Robinson and Carrie Underwood, the only danger to the selection that I can see is Nadia Turner (7/2). However, on the assumption that the producers will want a male winner to ensure an even split for the final 12, the 9/4 on Rice looks worth taking now, if only to make the remaining weeks of the programme more bearable!

Week 9 Match-Ups

GEO Force @ NO Voodoo

Sa Mar 26 – 8:00 pm (AFL NET)/Mar 27 - 1:00 GMT

On Saturday the AFLWA’S No.2 New Orleans Voodoo (6-2) have their sights set on repeating their Southern Division Championship win, when they face No. 1 team Georgia Force (6-2) at the New Orleans Arena. Voodoo QB Andy Kelly leads the AFL in completions (243), passing yards (2,417), and touchdowns (49), and with the likes of Aaron Bailey (5-11, 190, Louisville) and Thabiti Davies (6-3, 210, Wake Forest) in offence, he has a full arsenal at his disposal. Pick: Voodoo (-3.5) @ 10/11.

SJ Sabrecats @ LV Gladiators

Mo Mar 28 – 10:00 pm (NBC)/Mar 29 – 3:00 GMT

In Dallas on Friday, a potential ArenaBowl XIX Las Vegas preview takes place when Central Division-leading Colorado Crush (5-2) head to American Airlines Center to face Eastern Division-leading Dallas Desperados. Colorado head coach Mike Dailey and Dallas head coach Will MC Clay, will match wits as the Crush’s No. 3 scoring offence (54.6 PPG) will battle the Desperados’ No. 2 scoring defence (44.1 PPG). Pick: Under 106 Points @ 10/11.

Please refer to our site for all Week 9 lines, including spreads and totals.

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Get in the game and be lucky!


Nigel

Please be aware that prices are subject to change. All times are subject to change. Check local listings for TV coverage on these event.

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