Aston Villa look to get back on track in the Premier League on Sunday afternoon as they play host to West Ham at Villa Park (4.30pm; TV: Live on Sky Sports). In contrast, the visitors plan to keep themselves in form having beaten Spurs when last in EPL action. Which way will it go? Read on for our AVFC vs WHUFC preview with betting tips.
For Sunday’s hosts, things have gone awry of late. After returning from Old Trafford with all three points (and a clean sheet) in their pockets, Dean Smith’s men would’ve been in buoyant mood, though they’ve not been able to use that big victory as a platform from which to build, losing three on the bounce (in all competitions) since. Defensive cracks were evident last weekend when the Villains conceded three at home to Watford.
Unlike the hosts, West Ham have been in hot form of late. They did lose to Brentford, but since then, they’ve put together a pleasing run of results, beating Everton on the road, which is no easy achievement, thrashing Genk in the Europa League, beating Tottenham in the league and finally, beating Manchester City on penalties to advance in the Carabao Cup. Such results should mean that the Hammers come into Sunday’s fixture brimming with confidence.
Promising home form?
For all their recent results haven’t been great, in the main, Villa have looked relatively strong at home this season, picking up seven points from four games, or at least that’s what the bare results suggest. Against Newcastle and Everton, AVFC got the job done, but they weren’t as convincing as the 2-0 and 3-0 scores suggest, while they were somewhat underwhelming when drawing at home to Brentford, producing just 0.6 xG and conceding 1.1 in the process. They were also out-created by Wolves last time out at home, when throwing away a two-goal lead, creating 0.9 xG less than their visitors. They’ll have to do better to get a positive result here, that’s for sure.
Away from the comforts of the London Stadium, WHUFC have thrived this season, picking up points with regularity. In fact, Sunday’s visitors are only two points shy of having a full house on the road, beating Leeds, Everton and Newcastle and drawing to Southampton. In the process of picking up a pleasing ten points from four matches, the Hammers have scored seven goals, conceding only three and keeping two clean sheets. They’ve also outplayed their opponents in terms of expected goals in three out of four, recording an average travelling xG difference of +0.47.
At home, Aston Villa have faced both Newcastle and Everton, while WHU have faced that pair on the road. Against such opposition, Villa scored five and conceded zero at home, but they only produced 2.4 expected goals, conceding 1.4. In their two away games against the same opponents, West Ham scored five, created 3.8 xG and conceded 2.3, conceding two goals as well. Both teams picked up maximum points, but we can see that David Moyes’ men were the more creative in doing so, while both gave away a similar amount, even if West Ham conceded twice and Villa kept two clean sheets.
AVFC vs WHUFC: Where’s the bet in this EPL game?
In truth, it’s hard to go against the visitors here. Villa can tussle with some good teams on their day, but do they really the offensive quality to go toe-to-toe with the Hammers? As we can see from the numbers above, West Ham have done a better job creatively on their travels than Villa have at home, while it is the visitors that come into this fixture with much more behind them in terms of momentum having picked up some excellent results of late.
At the prices, ‘West Ham to Score Over 1.5 Goals’ appeals too. The visitors haven’t scored multiple goals too often of late, but they’ve still impressed creatively, and with the number of high-quality attacking options in their ranks, what with the likes of Pablo Fornals, Benrahma and Antonio all carrying a huge threat, it shouldn’t be long before they’re scoring two or more. After all, the hosts have struggled to keep things tight in recent weeks, conceding two or more in each of their last three, surrendering expected goals figures of 2.7, 2.0, 1.7 and 2.3 in their last four.
So these are this preview’s betting tips for this intriguing EPL game:
Bradley Gibbs is an experienced football writer. He is an expert analyst on Premier League, and all global football leagues & tournaments, for Just Bookies. Bradley has been published by many respected outlets, including USA Betting and the Racing & Football Outlook. He has also written betting strategy guides.