The Ayr Gold Cup is a much-punted annual cavalry charge over 6f at the famous Scottish racetrack and a low draw is often an advantage (3.40pm Saturday).
This Ayr Gold Cup preview has identified a couple of each-way betting tips for Saturday’s 2020 renewal with the good to soft going suiting plenty of the 25 runners. So let’s get to it with JustBookies’ analysis of the race.
Mr Lupton is the favourite at 6/1 and carries 9st 8lbs which is two pounds less than the top weight. Only three winners of the Ayr Gold Cup this century have carried more. Trainer Richard Fahey’s charge is aged seven and the previous winner older than six was in 1993. Only two outright favourites have won the race over the last 20 years. Hence, the trends are against the current market leader. However, Mr Lupton won a 22-runner Premier handicap at the Curragh over six furlongs last Sunday. He carried 9st 9lbs in that race but may not be capable of handling the weight against tougher opposition.
Nahaarr has been allocated three pounds less than the favourite. The four-year-old was a beaten favourite last time out in the Stewards’ Cup at Goodwood. He finished ninth behind Summerghand but was only three lengths adrift of the winner at the finishing line. Nahaarr is relatively inexperienced and has run just nine times, winning five of those races. The second favourite has the scope to improve which is not the case with the more exposed runners. The third place finish in the Silver Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot suggests Nahaarr can make the frame.
Stone Of Destiny is the third favourite in most lists with the leading online bookmakers and the best price is 10/1. The horse has won over the distance and going but only won one race from 27 starts carrying more than his weight of 9st 3lbs on Saturday. He won the Portland Handicap at Doncaster last week going away from the field of 21 runners. Stone Of Destiny is an improver but the handicapper may have got his measure. A total of four career wins over four seasons suggests the five-year-old gelding is not easy to win with and this competitive handicap looks too demanding off his weight.
Bielsa has not won a race this season in three starts and was a beaten favourite last time out. He is running for just the second time after wind surgery which can have a positive effect on a horse’s form. The Kevin Ryan trained runner has won four times from eight races over six furlongs. Ryan is one of the leading trainers at Ayr this season. However, Bielsa ran well below his best on the last start, at Haydock at the beginning of the month. He is unproven at this level and the weight allocation means winning this race looks beyond jockey Tom Eaves’ mount.
Staxton carries more weight than just one other horse in the maximum field. The 8st 13lbs allocation is a key factor. Fourteen winners since 2000 have carried at least this weight. Staxton is aged five and this age group has produced six winners over the last two decades. He has won over the distance, on the going and at or above the current handicap mark so has a decent profile. The son of Equiano continues to go up in the weights after winning two handicaps in his last two starts. Staxton has the scope to progress and still races off a winnable mark.
Wise Counsel wears cheekpieces for the first time so is unproven with the equipment. Daniel Tudhope’s steed won his previous race at Ayr, which was a Class 3 handicap last September. He carried 9st 3lbs as in the Ayr Gold Cup but it is a much stronger race. Aged four, Staxton is in the winning most age group this century. Six of the eight winners aged four since 2000 carried more than nine stone. However, Wise Counsel well beaten in a Class 2 handicap 14 days ago off a weight of 8st 12lbs. The horse made no impression on the winner inside the final furlong which is a major negative.
Arecibo finished fourth behind Stone of Destiny at Doncaster last Saturday. He was four lengths adrift of the winner off the same weight. He now gets four pounds from Stone Of Destiny which makes the pair evenly matched. The Doncaster winner looks to be carrying a big weight so Arecibo will struggle to win off the current mark. He is fully exposed with just four wins from 37 starts and unlikely to improve that strike rate in this Ayr handicap unless the first-time blinkers can eek out some improvement.
Air Raid has won over the distance and going but has finished well down the field in three outings since his latest run. The gelding finished third in a decent handicap over six furlongs at Hamilton in July. The son of Raven’s Pass carried 9st 12lbs in the Class 2 race but now has a more winnable mark. That run was an improvement on the previous efforts over the last 12 months and more progress could see Air Raid make the frame, especially with bookmakers offering extra places.
Our Preview’s Ayr Gold Cup Betting Tips Verdict
The standard place terms are one quarter the odds for four places but a number of bookmakers are offering extra places. There is a trade-off with the odds on offer but AIR RAID is worth backing with any bookie paying down to sixth place. He can be combined with a bet on STAXTON who carries a manageable weight.
Back both Ayr Gold Cup betting tips each-way. The more fancied runners are high enough in the handicap to win a race as competitive as this year’s Ayr Gold Cup. To conclude: