After picking up another valuable point away from home, the Brentford Bees return to playing in front of a home crowd on Saturday afternoon (3pm). The Southampton Saints will visit West London, as they go in search of a much-needed Premier League win. Read on for our full match preview and betting tips.
Brentford’s fine campaign continued last weekend, as they returned from Elland Road with both a point and a clean sheet. It was far from their best performance but Thomas Frank’s men were resilient on the road, building on their home win against Bournemouth just a few weeks ago.
The Bees are now up to eighth in the Premier League table, which puts them only six points shy of Europa League qualification. They couldn’t, could they? Stranger things have happened and, in a season, full of surprises, Frank’s men may just establish themselves as serious continental football contenders.
For the Saints, it was a case of so near, yet so far in the week, as they crashed out of the EFL Cup at the semi-final stage. In a season where their Premier League form has left plenty to be desired, a trip to Wembley could have been the saving grace, but it wasn’t to be as they lost out to a superb Newcastle United team.
Prior to their defeat in the north east, Nathan Jones’ men beat Blackpool in the FA Cup, but before that it was back to losing ways in the EPL, as they came unstuck at home, losing by a goal to nil against Aston Villa. The visiting boss will be hoping that his team’s win away at Everton in their last game on the road can act a springboard for further success here, as they desperately need a win.
Bees ready to sting at home
Everybody now knows how tough this Brentford team can be to face, there’s no mistaking that. Thomas Frank has his men well drilled and they are a stiff test for anyone, even the best teams in the Premier League. After all, Manchester City, Liverpool, Tottenham and Manchester United have all either lost or drawn against Brentford this season.
At home, the Bees are particularly hard to get the better of, which is why they have lost just one of their ten games in front of a home crowd, and even then, they tasted defeat at the hands of the imperious league leaders. They have now gone six league games without tasting defeat at Brentford Community Stadium, winning three of those six, scoring ten goals and conceding only four in the process.
Saints struggling on the road
It has been a poor season for the Saints, who right now seem destined for the drop. They are bottom of the table, and although they’re only three points from potential safety, they just don’t look like a team that’s going to go on the sort of run that will put them clear of danger.
They have collected more points on the road than they have at home, which is rather bizarre, but we shouldn’t let that fool us into thinking that they’ve been good away from home, because they absolutely have not. In fact, baring wins against relegation rivals, they have been relatively easy to beat when playing away from the comforts (or not as it is this season) of home.
Saturday’s visitors have lost four of their last five on the road, losing seven out of ten altogether. During that recent spell of four defeats in five, they have scored only three goals and have conceded a total of 11. Their lack of goals has been a problem, scoring only eight in ten, which is far from sufficient if you have conceded 18.
Home teams on top last term
This fixture was well and truly dominated by the home team last season. At this venue, Brentford came out on top by three goals to nil, whereas Southampton romped home at St. Mary’s, winning 4-1.
Home win hard to oppose
This looks like a great opportunity for the hosts continue picking up wins at home, and even at odds of 5/6, the home win looks slightly generous, such is the difference in quality.
This Brentford team knows how to get the job done, especially at home, which is why only five teams have a better home record in the Premier League this season. In contrast, the Saints know how to lose on the road. Add in Brentford’s home expected goal difference of +0.36 and put it against Southampton’s away xG difference of -0.48 and the home win starts to look more and more inevitable.
What’s more, Southampton have a problem scoring regular goals on the road, and that’s just not an issue for Brentford at home. With the likes of Ivan Toney, who has netted 13 times in the Premier League this term, with eight of those 13 coming on home soil, the hosts carry a significant threat. The same just cannot be said for the visitors, who altogether have scored the same number of away goals as Toney has on his own at home for the Bees.
We also should not forget that the Saints had a hard match in the week, whereas Brentford have had clear preparation ahead of this fixture, providing another reason as to why to look a good bet to get the job done.
Home goals on the cards
As an additional wager, taking the hosts to notch at least twice gets the nod. The Bees have scored two or more in each of their last three at home, scoring at least twice in six out of ten on their own patch overall this term. The Saints also have a habit of conceding multiple goals against top-half teams, while they average 1.8 against on the road this term.
So these are the Brentford FC vs Saints FC betting tips for this Premier League game preview:
Bradley Gibbs is an experienced football writer. He is an expert analyst on Premier League, and all global football leagues & tournaments, for Just Bookies. Bradley has been published by many respected outlets, including USA Betting and the Racing & Football Outlook. He has also written betting strategy guides.