Brentford travel to take on Brighton on Saturday (3pm), as both teams go in search of points that would take them into the top six of the Premier League. Can the Bees maintain their unbeaten run? Or will the hosts pick up another home win? This BHAFC vs Brentford FC preview, with its betting tips, hopes to reveal all.
The international break may have come at the right time for some teams, but it probably came at the wrong time for the Brighton squad, who would have loved to get straight back into action after thumping Grimsby 5-0 in the FA Cup. That confidence-boosting victory followed a hard-fought win over Crystal Palace in the EPL, which came after the Seagulls drew on the road to Leeds.
Overall, things continue to go well for Roberto de Zerbi’s men, who are very much still in the race for continental football. They are now unbeaten in five games (in all competitions), four of which they’ve won. So they ought to approach this match against a team that they are in direct competition with feeling positive.
Things haven’t gone as smoothly for the Bees in recent weeks. Thomas Frank’s men remain within touching distance of the top six, and they are no less likely than Saturday’s hosts to clinch a Europa League spot. They have been finding it tough to pick up regular wins, emerging victorious from only two of their last six Premier League games. Then again, they certainly don’t lose often, which is seemingly enough for them to hold their position, what with those chasing them lacking consistency too.
The visitors arrive here off the back of a slightly underwhelming display at home to Leicester last time out. They drew 1-1. Last time out on the road, they beat Southampton, which should mean that they will fancy their chances at Amex Stadium.
BHA have had the odd slip-up at home
Saturday’s hosts, Brighton, are in good shape, there can be no denying that. They built confidence last time out in the FA Cup, while they showed themselves to be resolute at home in the league prior to that.
However, it has not been too unusual for a team to go to Amex Stadium and cause the hosts a few problems, especially top-half teams. Both Arsenal and Aston Villa won at Brighton late in 2022, while Fulham have since gone to the Amex and returned victorious.
Against teams that currently join them in the Premier League’s top half, at home, Brighton have lost three, drawn one and won two. As touched on in this preview above, they also lost at home to Villa, who are currently outside of the top half on goal difference alone, while their recent win against Palace, who sit in 12th, was not only narrow but perhaps a tad fortunate. On that occasion, the hosts produced just 0.64 expected goals, while they allowed 1.28. Of course, they did win that game, so those numbers clearly aren’t everything, but they do suggest that the win was far from convincing, which doesn’t exactly bode well ahead of home game against decent opposition.
Visiting Bees resilient
If there is one thing that Thomas Frank’s men are then it is resilient. They are very good at soaking up pressure. They are very organised and are quite simply one of the best teams in the league at staying in a fight, even if it’s not one that they’re dominating.
The Bees have lost just one of their last 15 Premier League matches and, even then, they lost by just a single goal, while they dominated and were unlucky as they left the field with an xG supremacy of +1.14.
Even on their travels, they are very difficult to beat, as plenty of teams have found out. Frank’s men have lost just one of their last seven travelling games in the league, so we really should not expect Brighton to have it all their own way on Saturday, even if they are a team in form.
Seagulls looking for revenge over the Bees
When the teams met earlier in the campaign, it was Brentford who came out on top, winning 2-0 at home, thanks to a brace from the ever-reliable Ivan Toney. On that occasion, the Bees weren’t exactly dominant winners, but they showed just how strong they can be defensively, whilst at the same time carrying a major threat at the other end.
The victory was however Brentford’s first over Brighton since 2016. Brighton beat the Bees both home and away last season, winning by two goals to nil at this venue.
Bees to sting the Seagulls for a second time
Saturday’s visitors have already tasted victory in this fixture this term, and at the current odds, they don’t look a bad bet to make it two wins from two against the Seagulls, who haven’t always been foot perfect on home soil.
As mentioned earlier in this preview piece, Brighton’s record against top-half teams at home is far from excellent, with them winning only a third of their home games against such teams. We saw how Fulham went to the Amex and found joy, while Crystal Palace were only some better finishing away from taking something from a game that they had the better of.
Similarly, Brentford know how to get a result on the road. They drew at the Emirates, while they beat Man City away from home before Christmas. We know that they give little away, which is why they currently rank in the top five for expected goals conceded on the road. They are also one of just five Premier League teams with a positive xG difference away from home.
At the end of the day, the hosts might get the job done, but this is anything but an easy fixture, and the visitors look better than the early odds suggest. Therefore, when it comes to the betting tips for this preview, there is some value to be had by betting them ‘Draw No Bet’ at 3/1.
- Brentford Draw No Bet @ 3/1 with Bet365.
Bradley Gibbs is an experienced football writer. He is an expert analyst on Premier League, and all global football leagues & tournaments, for Just Bookies. Bradley has been published by many respected outlets, including USA Betting and the Racing & Football Outlook. He has also written betting strategy guides.