Brighton vs Leicester Preview & EPL Game Betting Tips: Profit Through Lack of Goals

Last updated September 24th, 2021

Jamie VardyIn front of a home crowd at the Amex Stadium, Brighton will look to take another step in the right direction in the Premier League (2pm Sunday). The Seagulls welcome Leicester, who arrive on the south coast off the back of letting a two-goal lead slip in Europe on Thursday night.

Graham Potter and his troops should be reasonably happy with their start to the campaign. They were beaten by Everton a fortnight ago, but as time goes on, that probably won’t look like the worst result in the world, while their efforts in general have been solid. For a side that has fought the drop in recent years, nine points from a possible 12 represents a very good start.

As for the Foxes, well, things haven’t gone too badly, but they have not exactly come flying out of the traps. Two wins and two defeats has left them perched half-way up the Premier League tree in ninth place, four points short of the coveted top four, which given the efforts of the club in the last two campaigns, is undoubtedly where they want to be.

Low-key hosts

Since entering the top-flight, the Seagulls haven’t exactly dazzled the crowds, they’ve not regularly put teams to the sword with free-flowing, fast-paced football, but they are not the easiest to beat, certainly not under Graham Potter, while they can play some solid, possession-based football.

So far this term, they’ve kept things quite low-key, not scoring many, but not conceding much either, scoring five and conceding three in four Premier League fixtures. For all they’re a side that keeps the ball well, dominating possession in four out of four this term, creativity isn’t their strong point, as an average of just 0.97 expected goals for per 90 minutes suggests. On the other hand, they’ve not given a tremendous amount away, shipping 1.05 xG on average. Sunday’s hosts have also done a decent job of restricting teams to few shots on target, conceding an average of just 2.5 since the start of the campaign.

Visitors a touch underwhelming

After two fantastic seasons under Brendan Rodgers, the Foxes have made something of a slow start to the new campaign. As touched on in this BHAFC vs LCFC preview above, six points from a possible 12 isn’t bad, but if we examine their efforts, they have underwhelmed slightly.

The opening weekend saw Rodgers’ men defeat Wolves by a goal to nil, but on the balance of play, they were somewhat fortunate to pick up all three points, as they created 0.8 xG, conceding 1.1. On match-day two, we saw visible defensive frailties as West Ham ran riot, scoring four goals en route to a comfortable victory. The defeat against Man City is easy to ignore, though even when they beat Norwich, they only did so by a single goal, nor were they particularly convincing, finishing the game with an expected goals supremacy of +0.30.

Lack of goals on the cards?

When we scratch beneath the surface, it’s not difficult to envisage a lack of goals at the Amex on Sunday afternoon. Both teams have individual quality, what with the likes of Leandro Trossard and Neal Maupay playing for the hosts. We all know about the threat posed by Leicester’s Jamie Vardy, but as collectives, both have been struggling somewhat to create a pleasing number of chances.

Brighton have produced a rather measly average of 0.97 expected goals per 90, while the visitors are averaging even less at 0.80. A combined total of 1.77 xG doesn’t exactly point towards an all-action encounter full of goals. Moreover, thanks to some solid foundations and a first-choice tactic of taking the sting out of the game, the hosts haven’t been giving much away, which seems to lend itself nicely to low-scoring games. Less than three goals have been scored in each of Brighton’s last three Premier League fixtures.

Using the lack of creativity that both have shown as a catalyst, punters could do far worse than going with ‘under 2.5 goals’ with the UK betting sites ahead of this fixture, which, taking everything into consideration, seems slightly overpriced at odds of 10/11.

We can see that both teams have failed to flourish in terms of creativity, while neither have hit the heights in terms of goals scored, so it would be little surprise if the pair shared something of a low-scoring affair in front of Sunday’s south-coast crowd. So, when it comes to betting tips for this EPL game preview, we like this one:

  • Go under 2.5 goals.

Compare BHAFC vs LCFC Match Winner Betting Odds from Main UK Bookmakers

Bet365 Betfred William Hill Paddy Power Betfair BetVictor
Brighton 8/5 17/10 13/8 8/5 13/8 8/5
Leicester 15/8 15/8 15/8 9/5 15/8 7/4
Draw 9/4 9/4 21/10 21/10 9/4 85/40