An in-form Brentford side welcome Tottenham Hotspur live in front of the Sky Sports cameras on Saturday (5.30pm). When they go to West London, the visitors will be looking to atone for their disastrous effort against the Seagulls last time out but beating the high-flying Bees will not be easy.
The Bees come into this fixture off what has been one of the best spells of their maiden Premier League campaign. Thomas Frank’s men surprised many by not just beating Chelsea but running out convincing winners a few weeks ago. They have not looked back since, beating Europa League semi-finalists and top-four chasers West Ham, before travelling to Watford and returning to West London with all three points last weekend.
For Tottenham, things were going swimmingly, but Antonio Conte’s men came crashing down to earth last time out, as they slumped to a 0-1 defeat at home to Brighton. Not only did they lose, but they did so without ever really putting in a performance, as they failed to register a shot on target. A more ambitious side than the Seagulls would have probably left North London with a far greater margin of victory. Not a man to hide his feelings, nor take such efforts without making his displeasure well and truly known, Conte will be looking for his side to bounce back somewhat hastily.
Brentford Improving at home
The hosts come into this game off some reasonably solid efforts at home, even in games where the result may not have gone their way. Since not really creating too much in the way of high-quality chances against Chelsea, Aston Villa, and Manchester City around the turn of the year, the Bees, in terms of creativity, have delivered a string of pleasing efforts at home, producing an average of 1.46 expected goals in their last six at the Brentford Community Stadium.
During that time, they have also done a pleasing job, on average, of creating more than they concede, surrendering an average of 1.01 expected goals. They have easily bettered their last two visitors in terms of expected goals, so it is little surprise that they come here off the back of consecutive home wins.
THFC Scoring freely on the road
Lots of Tottenham’s best attacking work has been carried out away from home in recent weeks. They delivered a clinical counter-attacking performance at Villa Park when last in action on the road, scoring four goals. Spurs have now scored two or more in each of their last four away games, scoring a total of 12 in those four. During that time, they’ve produced a solid average of 1.77 expected goals.
Such an average tells us that they have been particularly clinical, or perhaps even fortunate to score so many, but it also tells us that they have created plenty. From a defensive point of view, though they have kept three clean sheets in their last four on the road, Conte’s men haven’t exactly been flawless, giving up an average xG figure of 1.22. It is certainly not terrible but not exactly indictive of three clean sheets. Interestingly, in only one of their last six away games have THFC conceded less than 1.1 expected goals, so teams can certainly create against the Lilywhites.
What happened earlier in the campaign?
When the pair met in the reverse fixture, it was Spurs who ran out rather easy winners in front of a home crowd, scoring twice and conceding zero on their way to picking up a rather straightforward three points. Though with the way things have gone recently, don’t be surprised if they have a much tougher time of it on Saturday.
BrentfordFC vs THFC – How to bet this game?
Those punters expecting a serious reaction from Conte’s men following a weak display last time out, will be tempted by a near even-money on the travelling win, but it will take a brave punter to go against such in-form hosts at such a price.
At similar odds, ‘Both Teams to Score’ looks to be the best play with regards the betting tips. The hosts are in fine scoring form having scored two or more in each of their last three, scoring at least once in each of their last six, while as touched on in this preview above, their overall attacking efforts at home have been solid for some time.
What’s more, the visitors have been anything but shy in terms of scoring goals on the road, and with the pair averaging a combined 1.46 expected goals for (Brentford at home) and 1.77 expected goals for (Spurs on the road), ‘Both Teams to Score’ gets the nod.
Have a go on Harry
It has now been four games in a Spurs shirt since Harry Kane found the net, but don’t be hasty to give up on the man who leads the line. After all, this is a player who has 12 goals to his name this season, and a player who is averaging 0.51 expected goals per 90 minutes, making him Tottenham’s best performer in that sense.
Never shy to shoot, Kane also averages 3.38 shots per 90 minutes, so it’s unlikely to be long before he is back amongst the goals. At a generous looking 5/4, it is worth betting that the wait for his next one comes to an end on Saturday evening. So these are the betting tips for this EPL match preview:
Bradley Gibbs is an experienced football writer. He is an expert analyst on Premier League, and all global football leagues & tournaments, for Just Bookies. Bradley has been published by many respected outlets, including USA Betting and the Racing & Football Outlook. He has also written betting strategy guides.