Burnley’s bid to survive the drop will be renewed on Saturday afternoon, as they host Aston Villa at Turf Moor (3pm). After some excellent recent results, the Clarets have more than a fighting chance of remaining in the Premier League, but can they get the better of a visiting side that has now gone two games without tasting defeat? Read this Burnley vs AFC game preview, with it betting tips, to find out.
For much of the campaign, Burnley looked down and out, but as they have done in several other campaigns over the last few years, the Clarets have shown a tremendous amount of grit and determination, fighting so hard that they’ve gone from two wins in 19 games to four wins in six!
Having won each of their last three, the boys from Turf Moor have climbed out of the dreaded drop-zone and are now around 5/2 with the bookies for EPL relegation. That suggests they are heavy odds-on to survive. They have serious momentum going into what can only be described as the most important four games of their recent time in England’s top division.
As for the visitors, well, it’s been a decent campaign, but they have lacked consistency and as such, find themselves marooned mid-table with little to play for. Make no mistake about it, Steven Gerrard has done a promising job since taking the reins back in late 2021, but he’s yet to get the midlands club firing on all cylinders. Maybe next season.
Turf Moor tough to go to
If Burnley do stay up, which is becoming more and more likely as each week passes, then their late-season home form will have played a huge part. They’ve won four of their last seven at home, which shows clear improvement, as they had previously won only two out of 13 in front of their own fans. They have now won three home games on the spin, beating relegation rivals Everton, as well both Wolves and Southampton.
During their last three on their own patch, the Burnley boys have shown what they’re capable of doing on home soil. We’ve seen that they can not only sit back and soak up pressure, but that they can mix it with the ball too, putting teams under pressure, creating solid goal-scoring opportunities, which have led to six goals being scored by the hosts in the last three at this venue. Thanks to a combination of their old bite and newfound forward quality, there is real hope for the Clarets, who currently sit two points above the bottom three.
Lack of goals worrying
At times this season, the Villans have impressed offensively, especially when the mercurial talent of Philipe Coutinho has merged with the explosiveness of someone like Ollie Watkins. In recent weeks, they have found it tough to impose themselves. OK, they scored two against an already-relegated Norwich City team last weekend, but that’s not really anything to shout about, while they had gone back-to-back games without a goal before that. What’s more, Gerrard’s men have now scored more than once in just one of their last six, three of which they have failed to find the net in.
In general, the visitors have been hit and miss, particularly from an offensive point of view. Some days they have looked very threatening, and other days, they’ve struggled to get going. In terms of goals scored, they sit middle of the pack with 44. If we look at expected goals, then they’ve fared slightly worse, which illustrates the fact that they’ve often found it tough to create, or at least to be as creative as many other teams. Where is this leading? you may ask. Well, it is this relative lack of creativity which is a worry ahead of a trip to Turf Moor, where the hosts really have been fighting for their lives of late.
Burnley very backable in the bookies’ betting
At the current betting odds with the major bookmakers, there’s only one team to side with ahead of this fixture, and that’s the hosts. Of course, they are by no means sure-fire winners, but there’s far more to like about their recent efforts than the recent exploits of the visitors, who simply look too short.
Reversely, the odds available on the home win look slightly generous. After all, it is they who have momentum, and it is they who have something to fight for. Moreover, while the hosts arrive here having scored in each of their last four, scoring two or more in two of their last three at home, the visitors have scored in only one of their last three, and in only one of their last four if we remove a game against already-relegated opposition.
A viable alternative/secondary option is ‘Both Teams to Score – NO’. After all both teams have scored in just one of Aston Villa’s last five league matches, as well in just two of their last 11. On the road, they’ve either failed to score or kept a clean in six of their last eight. Both teams have scored in two of Burley’s last five overall, and in just one of their last eight at Turf Moor. So this is our brace of betting tips, at best available odds, for this Burnley vs AVFC preview:
Bradley Gibbs is an experienced football writer. He is an expert analyst on Premier League, and all global football leagues & tournaments, for Just Bookies. Bradley has been published by many respected outlets, including USA Betting and the Racing & Football Outlook. He has also written betting strategy guides.