Burnley vs Everton Preview & Betting Tips: EFC On A Roll?

Zeki AmdouniThere is another crunch game at the bottom of the Premier League table as Burnley host Everton on Saturday (5.30pm). Can the hosts pick up another positive result on home soil? Or will Sean Dyche upset his old club and lead the visitors to another big win? Read on for our match preview with betting tips.

Things were going poorly at Turf Moor. The Clarets went into their recent home game against fellow strugglers Sheffield United winless in seven, each of which they had lost, and the pressure was starting to mount on Vincent Kompany. However, they impressed in that game, winning 5-0 and have since delivered a few positive efforts. Sure, they lost away at Wolves, but that defeat was by the narrowest of margins and they certainly competed. Better still, they returned from a tough trip to Brighton with a point last weekend, a result that leads them nicely into this home game.

Saturday’s visitors also have reasons to come into this fixture in good spirits. Their loss at home to Manchester United a few weeks back was a blow, especially as it followed their rather harsh 10-point deduction, though the Toffees have not let that get to them. Since that United loss, they have kicked on, winning away at Nottingham Forest in dogged and determined style, before beating both Newcastle and Chelsea at home, scoring an impressive five goals and conceding none. Such results were just what the doctor ordered. Sean Dyche’s men now find themselves four points above the dreaded drop-zone.

Clarets can play at home

Results would have us believe that Burnley are quite timid at home, so much so that it would be easy to assume that their thumping win against Sheffield United was either a fluke or simply them taking advantage of poor opposition. However, prior to that win, though results had not gone their way, the positive signs were there. When they lost 1-2 at home to West Ham, Kompany’s men were arguably the better team, beating their opponents in terms of possession, shots on target and expected goals, while they were desperately unlucky not to get something from their home game against Palace, again dominating.

No fear on the road for Everton

Last season, the Toffees struggled away from home, winning just two travelling fixtures all season, but this time around, there has been sizable improvements in that sense. It is not yet half way through the campaign and Dyche’s men have already bettered last season’s total, winning four of their seven away games this time around. They will arrive at Turf Moor having won each of their last three away games too. Not only have they won those three, but they have done so in relatively sturdy fashion, conceding in just one out of three. Most recently, they beat Nottingham Forest by a goal to nil, and while they didn’t exactly offer a tremendous amount offensively, creating only 0.63 xG, they kept their hosts rather quiet, which bodes well.

Home teams on top

In recent times, whichever team has played at home has thrived in this fixture. When the teams met in the EFL Cup back in November, it was Everton that won 3-0 at Goodison Park. Prior to that, Burnley won by three goals to two at Turf Moor. Before that, Everton won by three goals to one in front of a home crowd. Only one of the last nine renewals of this fixture have gone the way of the visiting team.

Hosts could have more to offer than price suggests

After their rather positive recent results, the Toffees come into this game as quite warm favourites, though are they a little too warm? Sure, Dyche’s men have turned things around of late and they have certainly picked up some great results with some strong home performances. Of course, they have won three on the bounce on the road too, but I’m just not sure that their performances in those three away games warrant their rather short price here. Similarly, Burnley’s recent home efforts have been far from disappointing, while they showed some newfound grit and solidity away at Brighton last time out.

We know that this Burnley team can play some nice football and they can certainly create chances at home. On the road, Everton have arguably overperformed in that area of late, so we perhaps should not be surprised if they find this harder than the early odds suggest they might.

After all, the hosts have posted relatively respectable xG for numbers of 1.41, 1.40 and 1.22 in their last three home games. Everton’s last three expected-goals-for totals on the road read: 0.46, 1.51 and 0.63. They have also performed considerably worse on the road in terms of shots on target than Burnley have at home and cannot keep scoring with regularity whilst posting such low numbers in that respect.

Amdouni to do it

Few players have impressed for Burnley like Swiss international Zeki Amdouni has this season. This may just be a good opportunity for the tricky forward to score his third goal of the campaign.

A scorer in Burnley’s last home game, Amdouni has been very direct and he ought to enjoy playing against an Everton side that will sit off, allowing him to get on the front foot, run with the ball and shoot, which he certainly isn’t scared to do. No player has taken more shots for Burnley than Amdouni, who averages 2.21 shots per game, as well as 1.11 shots on target.

When playing at home, Amdouni has really tried to work opposing goalkeepers, which is something that makes odds of 16/5 look a little generous here. In his last six home games (for club and country), he has taken 14 shots, hitting the target five times. So these are the betting tips against the bookies for this Burnley vs EFC preview:

  • Burnley draw no bet @ 6/4 with Bet365 or Betfred.
  • Zeki Amdouni to score at any time @ 16/5 (just over 3/1) with BetVictor.