Crystal Palace vs Arsenal Preview & Betting Tips: CPFC Draw No Bet The Value

Alexandre LacazetteAn in-form Crystal Palace welcome Arsenal to Selhurst Park in the Premier League on Monday evening (8pm; TV: Live on Sky Sports). Will the hosts extend their already impressive unbeaten run? Or will the visitors pick up the three points that would solidify their Champions League claims? Read this EPL preview and betting tips to clarify those questions.

CPFC vs AFC: Recent form

It has been a promising period for Patrick Vieira’s men, who went into the international break in high spirits following a thumping win over Everton in the FA Cup. Prior to that win, they held the Premier League leaders to a draw at this venue, their fourth straight EPL game without tasting defeat, two of which they’ve won. Under the ex-Arsenal man, known as the fiercest of competitors, Palace are developing a thick skin. They are resilient, they can keep things tight, while they are making a habit of picking up all-important results.

As for Arsenal, well, they too have something to shout about. After what was a dreadful start to the campaign, Mikel Arteta’s men have climbed up the table, so much so that they are now in a position of promise, sitting in fourth spot, three points in front of their closest pursuers, who happen to be rivals Tottenham, with a game in hand. The visitors arrive at this junction off the back of a hard-fought win away against Aston Villa.

Comparative form

The visitors, in terms of points accumulated, have done well on the road, picking up 22 points from 13 travelling fixtures. That makes them the seventh-best travellers in the division. In comparison, with a total of 19 points in front of their own fans, Monday’s hosts are the 11th best home team in the division. Such form points towards Arsenal being stronger, as does the current league table, though it’s not difficult to look on Palace’s home efforts more favourably, especially if we break things down further.

Palace have lost just four times at home, while the visitors have succumbed to defeat five times on the road. Vieira’s men have also scored 22 times at Selhurst Park, while Arteta’s men have scored 20 times on their travels. In terms of expected goals, the hosts come out looking better too.

In front of their own fans, Palace produce an average of 1.44 expected goals, while they have a very reasonable average expected goal different of +0.46, which tells us that on average, they are creating a good bit more than they’re giving up. In contrast, away from home, the Gunners have an average expected goal difference of -0.26, while they produce an average of 1.33 xG. In terms of what each team surrenders, the Eagles concede a solid average of 0.98. The visitors have given up a quite chunky average of 1.59.

What happened when the pair met earlier in the season?

Earlier in the campaign, Crystal Palace returned from the Emirates with a point after coming from a goal down to draw 2-2, though that draw may have felt like a defeat. The Eagles were behind initially, but goals from Christian Benteke and Odsonne Edouard saw Palace take the lead, which they held until Alexandre Lacazette pounced in the 95th minute. On that occasion, it was the Gunners who had the best of the encounter in terms of possession and shots, while they also had the better of the game in terms of expected goals, emerging with a +0.5 supremacy, which tells us that the hosts on that occasion were good value for the draw they so timely secured, at the very least.

CPFC vs AFC: Where’s the bet?

As we saw last time out at Villa Park, this is a reasonably well-oiled Arsenal machine, one that is now very much capable of getting the job done, as well as dazzling fans by playing attractive and incisive football. That said, do the visitors really warrant being odds-on favourite ahead of this tie? For this preview’s money, the answer is no.

This is a very sturdy and capable Crystal Palace side, a squad that we have seen deliver numerous attacking blows, but also a side that can dig deep and stand firm against the best, which is what we saw them do when drawing 0-0 with Manchester City last time out in the league at Selhurst Park. If we consider this in conjunction with the fact that their numbers at home are superior to Arsenal’s on the road, then it’s not terribly difficult to make a case for a home win, especially when we can get odds of 13/8 with a ‘Draw No Bet’ insurance policy.

In short, Patrick Vieira’s upwardly mobile side have built solid foundations at home, and to be honest, have done more than enough to warrant a bit more respect in the betting. On this basis, they are worth supporting to pick up a positive result.

So when it comes to the betting tips for this CPFC vs AFC preview, it is just the one:

  • Crystal Palace Draw No Bet @ best odds of 9/5 with BetVictor.