Everton pursue their bid for Premier League survival on Sunday afternoon, as they host an already safe Brentford side at Goodison Park (4.30pm; TV: Live on Sky Sports). Can Frank Lampard’s men pick up another invaluable three points? This EFC vs Brentford Bees preview and betting tips aims to answer that.
It was only a few weeks ago that Everton seemed destined for the drop, but there has been a rather substantial turnaround in fortunes at Goodison Park over the last fortnight or so. The Toffees have now avoided defeat in four of their last five league matches, three of which they’ve won, securing a massive ten points, a total that has taken them out of the bottom three.
As they sit just a single point above Leeds in 18th, the job is far from over, but they’ve played a game less than their two relegation rivals. So there is plenty hope for Frank Lampard and his men, who of the three teams competing to avoid slipping out of England’s top division have the most momentum ahead of the final few weeks. The bookies have them outsiders of the three at 12/1 for the drop.
Unlike the hosts, Sunday’s visitors have little to play for. It has been a relatively successful first Premier League season for Thomas Frank’s men, who have cut it with some of the best at times, and who have easily avoided a relegation scrap. If they can end the season with a couple of positive results, the Bees may even go into the summer break having finished inside the top half.
Offensive improvements
When the Toffees were really struggling to put points on the board back towards the end of March, they were producing a paltry mount offensively, creating few chances, which was quite understandably leading to few goals being scored. In fact, between the middle of February and the first week in April, EFC scored just two EPL goals, which given that they played six games during that spell, is poor. However, they have since improved from a creativity standpoint.
Since scoring twice in defeat at Burnley just over a month ago, Sunday’s hosts have scored five in five in the Premier League. Such numbers won’t turn many heads, but they are a sizable improvement, and this has arisen from the increase in chances being created. Since that defeat at Burnley, the Toffees have produced an average of 1.26 expected goals per 90 minutes. Again, not amazing, but it’s better than before. In the six games leading up to that evening at Turf Moor, Lampard’s men produced an average of just 0.53 xG. So, their output has more than doubled recently.
Toffees vs Bees: Goals galore on the road
In recent times, the Bees have found it tough to stay away from high-scoring fixtures on the road, with each of their last six travelling games containing at least three goals. Moreover, three or more goals have been scored in 67% of Brentford’s away games in the Premier League this season, with only Southampton being involved in more road matches containing more than two goals.
In all competitions, all but one of Brentford’s last 11 away games have contained at least three goals. Both teams have scored in eight of those 11, so it is fair to say they know all about the goals flowing when playing away from the comforts of their West London home.
Familiar foes
This will be the third meeting between the pair this season. First off, they met in the Premier League back in late November 2021, a match that produced just a single goal. It was a goal that went the way of Brentford, though they weren’t exactly good value for the victory, as it was Everton who did more in terms of both shots and shots on target. The Toffees dominated in terms of possession too, meaning that they probably felt hard done by.
Fortunately, Lampard’s boys got their revenge when the pair met in the FA Cup in February, as they won by four goals to one at Goodison Park. On that occasion, there was no doubt who deserved to come out on top, as they bettered the travelling Bees in all areas. Will we see more of the same on Sunday?
Goals for both incoming
If we consider Everton’s improved attacking game and couple it with Brentford’s apparent love for goals on the road, then ‘Both Teams to Score’ stands out as a more than viable option.
The hosts have now scored at least once in six of their last seven, and they’ll be buoyed by not only recent results but the fact that they scored twice for the first time in five matches last time out.
However, Lampard’s relegation battlers aren’t really in the habit of keeping teams out, as just two clean sheets in eight games suggests. They have also conceded xG figures of 1.7, 1.2 and 1.8 in their last three league games, so they are unlikely to keep visitors who have produced an average of 1.52 expected goals in their last five on the road quiet.
Back the in-form Brazilian
Since scoring three goals in two matches on international duty back in March, Richarlison has upped his game in an Everton shirt, scoring four goals in six games, including a vital winner against Chelsea when Everton were last in action at Goodison Park.
If you are interested in playing an anytime scorer in the Premier League this weekend, with momentum behind his team, the Brazilian, who averages 0.34 expected goals per 90 minutes, and who fires off an average of 2.4 shots, is the one to side with. So these are the two betting tips, at best odds, for this Toffees vs Bees preview:
- Both teams to score @ 4/5 with William Hill or Betfred.
- Richarlison to score at any time @ 7/5 with BetVictor.
Bradley Gibbs is an experienced football writer. He is an expert analyst on Premier League, and all global football leagues & tournaments, for Just Bookies. Bradley has been published by many respected outlets, including USA Betting and the Racing & Football Outlook. He has also written betting strategy guides.