The English domestic season concludes on Saturday with a showpiece game at Wembley. For the first time in history, the two Manchester clubs will contest the FA Cup Final 2023 after both teams enjoyed a productive Premier League campaign (3pm; Live on TV: BBC1).
Manchester City won their third EPL title in succession, while Manchester United will make an overdue return to the Champions League next term. The betting markets come down heavily on the side of a City win, but this could be a much closer tie than the odds from the British-serving bookmakers suggest. Read on for our Manchester Derby FA Cup Final preview with betting tips.
MCFC have a clear lead at the top of the match result market. Pep Guardiola’s men are available at 1/2 in most places while victory for Erik Ten Hag’s MUFC is available at a general 5/1. Sandwiched in between those two figures is the draw which is quoted at best industry odds of 15/4. Those figures are for the result in 90 minutes and they exclude any extra time. This means there is a separate ‘To Lift the Trophy’ option where Man City are even shorter, listed at a top price of 1/4 while United can be backed at 11/4.
It is worth looking at a number of stats here. In terms of the form guide, City picked up 13 points from their final six Premier League games, while United were just one point behind on 12. The head-to-head results from this season show one win each. MCFC enjoyed an emphatic 6-3 victory at the Etihad in October, while United had revenge of sorts via a 2-1 winning scoreline at Old Trafford. The fact that Manchester City finished 14 points clear of United has helped to make them hot favourites, but those stats suggest that Saturday’s final could be a tight affair.
The obvious favourite in the first goal scorer betting is Manchester City’s Erling Haaland. The Norwegian international had a record-breaking first season in England, scoring 52 goals in 51 matches. That return includes three in three FA Cup games and he is available at best odds of 11/4 to find the net first.
City players dominate the First Goalscorer market with back-up striker Julian Alvarez next at 5/1, followed by Riyad Mahrez and Phil Foden at 7/1 and Kevin de Bruyne at 15/2. Manchester United’s Marcus Rashford finally breaks the Man City streak at his best price of 9/1. Further back, United’s Bruno Fernandes can be a productive threat from midfield and he is on offer at a tempting 12/1 for the first goal.
In other side markets, Both Teams to Score is available for Saturday’s final at 3/4 in places. If you are considering the ‘no’ bet on BTTS, this can be claimed at best odds of 23/20.
Over in the Total Combined Goals markets, a stake Over the 2.5 line is currently being met at a top price of 8/13. By pushing that higher, we can get a best of 31/20 for Over 3.5 goals. Anyone backing a quiet 90 minutes at Wembley could opt for Under 2.5 goals which is quoted at best odds of 11/8.
Our final look at the side markets takes in some Correct Score suggestions. The match betting points to a comfortable afternoon for Manchester City, and those who agree could consider City 3 United 1 at best odds of 11/1. A 2-1 win in favour of Manchester United is listed at a top price of 18/1, while the 1-1 draw can be backed at a best of 17/2.
Our 2023 FA Cup Final’s Preview with Betting Tips Conclusion
While we have been hinting at a closer game than the match betting suggests, we have to take into account a run of injuries within the Manchester United squad. Reports in the days leading up to the final claim that the Red Devils could be without six players, including Anthony, Lisandro Martinez, Anthony Martial and Luke Shaw. There is depth in the United squad, but that doesn’t leave too much quality on the bench.
We still suspect that Manchester United’s first choice XI will make things tough for their opponents in the opening stages. That injury list may also suggest that City will come through, but only after United tire in the later phase of the game.
For those reasons, together with the form guide and the head-to-head stats, this preview is looking at a draw at the end of 90 minutes. Manchester City may well go on to win, but we feel that they will need an extra period and, possibly, the dreaded penalty shootout.
The draw is the first pick and we’ll also add in Both Teams to Score. While we agree with the theory that MCFC are almost guaranteed to find the net, there should be enough attacking threat from United, even if both Anthony and Martial are ruled out. The Red Devils scored six times in their last two EPL games and that is an encouraging stat.
We look forward to an entertaining and, hopefully, profitable game. Remember that both of these picks are for the result in 90 minutes, and they will exclude any extra time.