Nations League: Germany vs England Preview & Betting Tips – Expect Lack of Goals

Gareth SouthgateThe Three Lions are back in action on Tuesday evening (7.45pm; TV: Live on CH4), as they travel to Germany to take on the four-time World Cup winners in their own backyard. England will be looking to atone for what was a poor effort in Hungary on Saturday night.

The Germans picked up where they left off just a few days ago, as they walked off the pitch having drawn 1-1, just as they did back in March. On this occasion, it was a 73rd minute goal from the ever-reliable Joshua Kimmich that saved their blushes against Italy. It’s now two games without a win for Hansi Flick’s men, though drawing against both the Netherlands and Italy is hardly something to be overly upset about. Ahead of the upcoming World Cup, the current German crop look in decent shape having lost none of their last ten matches, eight of which they have won.

For England, things had been going swimmingly, but they came under pressure in Budapest on Saturday evening, pressure that they eventually buckled under, losing by a goal to nil in the Hungarian capital. That was of course their first loss (inside 90 minutes) since November 2020, so it’s far from the end of the world for Gareth Southgate’s men, who despite coming to this match off the back of a defeat, will probably remain confident. After all, they got the better of the Germans when the pair met at the European Championship last summer.

Germans not infallible at home

Everyone knows how tough facing the Germans away can be, and Die Mannschaft certainly know how to both intimidate and get a result on home soil, but in recent times, plenty of teams have returned from Germany with a positive result to show for their efforts.

In the Nations League alone, Tuesday’s hosts have won just one out of five, drawing against Switzerland, Spain, Netherlands and France. Now, those are some quality opponents, but not one of them currently ranks above England in the FIFA World Rankings, so there’s no reason why Southgate’s men cannot be confident. Moreover, if we look at friendlies and World Cup Qualifiers in the last year, both Denmark and North Macedonia have got results on German soil.

Visitors can nullify

Since their near-miss at the euros last summer, the Three Lions haven’t come up against opposition of Germany’s quality, so it will be interesting to see how they get on. If their efforts at the last major tournament are anything to go by, then there is reason to believe that they can keep their hosts quiet. After all, during the delayed Euro 2021, the English made a habit of adopting a pragmatic style, one that wasn’t always the most entertaining, but was effective in terms of stopping teams from building up a head of steam. During that competition, only two teams scored against the men in white, and no team scored more than a single goal.

What’s more, since 2020, England have played nine games against nations that currently rank inside the top 30 in the world according to FIFA’s ranking system, and they’ve only conceded more than once in one of those ten.

Goals generally keep away

Since 2013, Germany and England have played each other five times, and apart from one rather exciting and explosive 3-2 win that went the way of the Three Lions back in 2016, the goals have largely stayed away. In only one of those five matches has more than two goals been scored, with three containing just a single goal or less. Both teams have scored in only one of the last five renewals of this fixture. Such stats may not please those looking to side with a high-scoring fixture in the betting.

Germany vs England betting tips: Where’s the wager?

After England’s defeat just a few days ago, there may be more than a few people getting on the home win, which after some early support is now down to somewhere around the 11/8 mark. As touched on in this preview above, they really haven’t covered themselves in glory at home in recent times, especially in the UEFA Nations League, so if you do fancy playing in the Win/Draw/Win market, a bet on the visitors must be the value call at odds of 9/4.

For my money, ‘Under 2.5 Goals’ is the best route in terms of a betting tip. Again, as mentioned above, the goals have generally stayed away when these two old rivals have locked horns in recent years, while England have most certainly favoured the low-key approach against the big teams over the last 18 months or so. Not only have they conceded more than once in just one of their last nine against teams ranked inside FIFA’s top 30, but less than three match goals have been scored in seven of those nine. A maximum of two goals have been scored in each of Germany’s three games in 2022 too, so don’t be surprised if despite the big-game status, these two international heavyweights fail to pack a punch in terms of goals. So, in terms of betting tips, this is our one selection for this Germany vs England preview: