Leicester look to continue moving towards the top of the Premier League today as they host Everton at the King Power Stadium (6pm Wednesday). After beating Chelsea last time out, the visitors will also be hoping to take another step in the right direction.
So who is likely to win out? This JustBookies’ Leicester vs Everton preview, with advised betting tip, hopes to answer that question.
By recording a rather straightforward 3-0 win at home to Brighton, Leicester moved to within just a single point of league leaders Tottenham on Sunday evening. That win was a third (in all competitions) in a row for Brendan Rodger’s men, who have scored five and conceded just one in their last two Premier League encounters.
Toffees tough to beat
Chelsea were a side in hot form ahead of last weekend’s clash at Goodison Park, but the West London side found out just how difficult Carlo Ancelotti’s men can be to face. Against a side tipped by many to challenge at the very tip of the Premier League this season, the Toffees delivered a solid, secure performance, holding what is a more than reasonable attack at arms-length before pouncing at the other end.
If we glance over Everton’s recent form, it’s mixed at best, though we can see that they’ve not been conceding goals, while when they have lost, it has been by the narrowest of margins. The fact that Ancelotti’s side haven’t conceded more than a single goal in any of their last three signals progress. That said, they’ve only kept one clean sheet in the league since the opening day, which is a bit worrying.
Visitors no strangers to winning here
Going away to Leicester and getting a result is something that Everton have done more than once in recent seasons. When the Toffees visited King Power Stadium last campaign, they were beaten by two goals to one, though they emerged with a 2-1 win of their own back in 2018. The 2016 season also saw Everton win by two goals to nil at this venue. Interestingly, Everton have only failed to score in one of their last five visits to home ground of the Foxes.
Is home where the heart is?
Leicester are a strong side, there’s no denying that. They’re where they are in the league at present on merit, but their overall efforts at home this season have left something to be desired. The Foxes may have recently beaten Brighton at this venue, but prior to that they tasted defeat against Fulham, while both West Ham and Aston Villa have gone to King Power and emerged victorious this term.
If we scratch beneath the surface, then Leicester’s home efforts start to make for even poorer reading. They’ve failed to score in two of their six home matches this term, scoring just once in two of the other four. Moreover, their expected ‘goals for’ numbers aren’t exactly imperious, as they are averaging just 1.13 per 90 minutes in front of a home crowd. Defensively, they’ve not given a tremendous amount away, though on average, they’ve struggled to stop teams from matching them in terms of creativity, as an average expected goal difference of -0.13 suggests.
Visitors not bad on the road
Everton haven’t been outstanding on their travels this term, though they’ve done a reasonable job of avoiding defeat, losing two out of six. What’s more, they’ve posted some useful numbers. With penalty-box bully Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who has scored 11 league goals this term, in their ranks, Everton were always likely to threaten, and they’ve done more than that, scoring eight goals in six away matches. They’ve also posted a respectable average of 1.38 expected goals for. Such a number won’t turn many heads, though it’s not something to be sneezed at away from home, especially when playing away from the comforts of home. After dominant performances away against both Burnley and Fulham, the Toffees ought to go to King Power Stadium feeling upbeat.
Visitors stand out at the prices
On their own patch, after recording a relatively easy home win last time out, Leicester deserve to be favourites ahead of this match, though it’s easy to feel that there ought to be a bit more juice in the price of the home win. Keeping this in mind, the visitors stand out at around 5/2. Those who are cautious may prefer to side with Everton on the ‘draw no bet’ market, which at odds of circa 7/5, is very appealing.
Not only have Leicester been a bit underwhelming at times at home, but they’ve also tended to struggle a bit when not allowed to counter on teams. If teams sit back, the threat of Jamie Vardy, who thrives when playing in behind, tends to be weakened. Everton have shown on several occasions that they can dig in, be patient and wait for their own counter or even set piece opportunities. They deployed a deep-lying, cautious approach to great effect against Chelsea last weekend. As touched on earlier in this LCFC vs EFC preview, Everton have also posted better underlying numbers on the road than Leicester have at home. Right now, the Toffees have a +0.36 expected goals advantage over the visitors, which is something that really should be considered.
All in all, a bet on the visitors, with the insurance that ‘draw no bet’ provides, offers punters a smidgen of value for money. So this is our Leicester vs Everton betting tip:
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Bradley Gibbs is an experienced football writer. He is an expert analyst on Premier League, and all global football leagues & tournaments, for Just Bookies. Bradley has been published by many respected outlets, including USA Betting and the Racing & Football Outlook. He has also written betting strategy guides.