Leicester welcome Liverpool to King Power Stadium on Saturday lunchtime, as the Premier League returns after a mid-week round of FA Cup fixtures (12:30pm, live on BT Sport). The hosts will hope to keep themselves in front of the champions, whom they are currently three points ahead of.
Read on for our Leicester vs Liverpool preview, with betting tips and EPL match odds comparison.
When Leicester came unstuck at this venue against an enigmatic Leeds side a few weeks ago, it looked as though they may just be heading in the wrong direction, at least that’s what one point from a possible six suggested. However, things have picked up since then, with Brendan Rodger’s men winning two and drawing one of the last three, conceding an impressive zero goals in the process. Offensively, the Foxes haven’t been firing on all cylinders, scoring just two in 270 minutes of Premier League football, though With Jamie Vardy now fit again, it wouldn’t be a surprise if their output increased in the not-so-distant future.
While Leicester have been ticking along nicely in recent weeks, Liverpool, who appeared to be back on the up when notching three en route to victory at West Ham not long ago, have floundered somewhat. Their win in east London was followed by defeat at home to Brighton, while they were handed something of a beating by likely title winners Man City last time out. A side that has lost its spark must improve if they are to get a result at King Power Stadium, which is anything but an easy place to go.
Poor record in this fixture
Leicester may come into this fixture in a slightly better position than their visitors, though in recent times Leicester have struggled to get going against Liverpool, who seem to have a mental edge over Saturday’s hosts. Liverpool have won each of the last three renewals of this fixture, as well as four of the last five. The Foxes haven’t beaten the Reds since 2017, when they won by two goals to nil at this venue. In the time since, they have drawn one and lost six against Jurgen Klopp’s Premier League champions.
Visitors on the ropes
After their runaway title win last term, much was expected from Liverpool this season, but the champions have simply failed to deliver, and are now without a doubt set to surrender their crown without putting up much of a fight. Less effective offensively and much softer at the back is an accurate description of the team that was so incredibly tough to lay a glove on last season. Teams now very much fancy themselves to get a result against the Merseyside club, which simply wasn’t the case during the previous campaign.
With the title no longer a realistic objective for the Reds, finishing in the top four is now their main goal. Achieving that won’t be easy, especially without players such as Virgil Van Dijk and Diogo Jota, who before sustaining a rather serious injury, was fast becoming a vital cog in Klopp’s machine.
What do the numbers tell us?
Leicester have struggled to put together a real run of form at home this season, while Liverpool have found it difficult to impose themselves on the road. It’s fair to say that the pair have been up and down in their respective home and away matches.
What can we glean from their underlying numbers? Well, let’s see. Leicester come into this fixture as the league’s seventh-best team in terms of shots conceded, while they’re only the 11th best when it comes to shots for. Hardly inspiring. In this respect, Liverpool have performed better than Saturday’s hosts. The visitors are the second-best Premier League team in terms of shots conceded on the road, as well as the fourth best in terms of shots for. The Reds have an average travelling shot supremacy of +5.37. Leicester’s average shot supremacy at home is +2.00.
In terms of expected goals, Leicester haven’t been great at home, or rather they’ve not been great offensively. Despite having no shortage of attacking talent, Rodger’s men currently average a rather subdued 1.26 expected goals for at home. At the other end, they’ve surrendered an average of 1.3, which isn’t terrible, far from it, but it’s not great when put next to their slightly weak attacking number.
Liverpool currently average 1.71 expected goals for on the road, while they’ve conceded an average of 1.25. Such numbers point towards Liverpool being the better side from the point of view of scoring opportunities created and surrendered at least.
Visitors a good bet?
Liverpool haven’t had the season many expected them to, while Leicester have shown that they’re capable of holding a top four position, though if we scratch beneath the surface it is tough to look beyond a visiting win. For all they’ve struggled recently against the best team in the league (by some distance) and a Brighton side that made life difficult by being organised and disciplined defensively, they come into this match off the back of two strong away victories. They were games in which their supremely talented front-line did the business, helping the Reds to notch six goals. Combine those efforts with the numbers discussed above and backing a Liverpool win looks to be the way to go.
Additionally, ‘Liverpool to Score Over 1.5 Goals’ appeals with the sports betting sites. An away average of 1.71 ‘expected goals for’ fuels such a selection, as do the recent performances of Liverpool’s attack on the road. Moreover, Leicester have made a habit of buckling under the pressure in recent renewals of this fixture, conceding two or more en route to defeat in each of their last three against Liverpool, as well as in four of their last five home games against the champions. So these are Just Bookies’ betting tips for this preview:
- Liverpool to win @ 23/20 with William Hill or Betfred.
- Liverpool to score over 1.5 goals @ 10/11 with Betfred.
LCFC vs LFC Betting Odds from Trusted UK Bookmakers
Bradley Gibbs is an experienced football writer. He is an expert analyst on Premier League, and all global football leagues & tournaments, for Just Bookies. Bradley has been published by many respected outlets, including USA Betting and the Racing & Football Outlook. He has also written betting strategy guides.