Newcastle vs Tottenham Preview & Betting Tips: Total Home Goals Tempts

Harvey BarnesSaturday’s first Premier League kick-off sees Newcastle host Tottenham, as both teams battle for a place in continental competition next season (12.30pm). Can either team kick on after picking up wins last weekend? This NUFC vs THFC preview with betting tips should clarify.

Following their comeback win against West Ham a couple of weeks ago, the task for an injury-hit Newcastle team was to push on and maintain their form. Eddie Howe would have been disappointed to see his team drop points against Everton after that win against the Hammers, though a draw wasn’t the worst result, while the Magpies duly got the job done away against Fulham last time out. Given their current injury crisis, with many first-team players sidelined, seven points from their last nine is a very respectable haul.

Spurs’ recent form has followed a similar pattern, with Ange Postecoglou’s men regaining the winning thread following that rather embarrassing Fulham defeat by beating Luton at home, coming from behind, much like the Magpies did against West Ham. They then made the short trip to the London Stadium, where they were held to a 1-1 draw, before beating Nottingham Forest 3-1 last time out. As things stand, Spurs have the upper hand in the race for fourth, but their position is far from secured, meaning that they need to keep picking up as many points as possible.

St James’ Park still a hard place to go

Much has been made of how the Magpies have failed to live up to the quite lofty standards that they set for themselves last season, but their injury issues and learning to juggle Champions League commitments have certainly had quite sizable parts to play on that front. However, we are still talking about a team that is heavily knocking on the top-six door, while at home they remain a tough team to beat.

Right now, Howe’s men are unbeaten in five home games, while they have only lost three times at home during the current Premier League campaign. Two of those losses came against Manchester City and Liverpool, meaning that they have lost just one out of 13 home games against non-top-three teams. Offensively, NUFC can hurt teams as well as anyone in the EPL, scoring an impressive 39 home goals this season, which averages out to 2.43 per game.

Visitors THFC leaking on the road

The visitors, Spurs, do come into this game in quite pleasing form, but they continue to be quite lenient with what they allow other teams to create, especially away from home. On the road, they have kept just one clean sheet in their last six. In those six games, they have shipped a total of 12 goals, which isn’t great, surrendering two or more in four out of six.

The way in which they crumbled at the back away against Brighton, Manchester United and Fulham in recent months would suggest that a decent Magpies attack, containing in-form players such as Alexander Isak and Harvey Barnes, could cause plenty of damage.

Goals galore when NUFC & THFC clash

In recent times, when Newcastle and Tottenham have met, it has been goals galore. When the teams met earlier in the current season, they shared five goals as Spurs won 4-1 in front of a home crowd. Prior to that, when the teams last met at St. James’ Park, in April of last year, Newcastle won 6-1.

Interestingly, only one of the last six renewals of this fixture has contained less than four goals. In four of those six, at least five goals have been scored. It is also worth noting that Saturday’s hosts have a habit of scoring multiple goals against Spurs at home, notching two or more in each of the last three renewals of this match at St. James’ Park.

Go for home goals in the betting

This is no easy fixture to call, both arrive here in decent form, while both have performed similarly of late, so the fact that they are quite evenly matched in the early betting with the UK’s better bookmakers seems about right. However, home goals look a little generously priced. While a bet of the visitors to score two or more goals is priced around 4/6, the hosts to notch two or more is priced around 4/5, which looks a little lenient.

For starters, as touched on in this preview above, the Magpies have scored a very pleasing average of 2.43 goals per home game in the EPL this season. They have recently put in very good scoring performances against teams not dissimilar to Spurs in terms of league table location, scoring four against West Ham and three against Wolves. Howe’s men have also notched two or more goals in five of their last six, while when they have been afforded the opportunity to counter teams, they have really thrived, scoring twice against Manchester City in such fashion. Ahead of a game against a forward-pushing Spurs team, that bodes well.

What is more, we know that this Spurs team is vulnerable at the back. In 2024, they have gone away from home and conceded two or more against Manchester United, Everton and Fulham, struggling to guard against the break in each of those games. That doesn’t suggest they will do the best job of containing the likes of Isak, Barnes and Gordon, all of whom offer a serious counter-attacking threat.

With this being a fixture that has produced plenty of goals in recent times, Newcastle to Score Over 1.5 Goals on the ‘total home goals’ betting market simply looks the best bet at the early odds. So the betting tips for this EPL game preview boil down to this one:

  • Newcastle to Score Over 1.5 Goals @ best odds of 4/5 with Bet365 or BetVictor.