Following their Monday night win against local rivals Everton, Liverpool travel to take on Newcastle United on Saturday (5.30pm). Can the visitors pick up back-to-back Premier League wins for the first time in 2023? Or will the hosts continue to impress? All will be revealed in this NUFC vs LFC preview article, with betting tips.
The Magpies were not able to resume winning ways last time out, as they were held to a 1-1 draw by lowly Bournemouth, though that result took them to a whopping 17 EPL games without tasting defeat. Such a record is hugely impressive, and we are now very much talking about a team that is incredibly difficult to beat. Sure, they have not been at their brilliant best in recent weeks, failing to win against a few bottom-half teams, but they remain a side that is anything but easy to get at.
Eddie Howe’s men have also won three of their last four in all competitions at home, where they are still yet to lose this term. Many have tried, but not even the best teams in the division have been able to leave St James’ Park with anything more than a share of the spoils. Impressive indeed.
Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool got back to picking up maximum points last time out, as they defeated ailing Premier League relegation third-favourites Everton in front of a home crowd, winning by two goals to nil. After their rather appalling effort away to Wolves, such a victory was much needed, as was the dominant performance. After struggling to get going, the Reds controlled the game from start to finish, which should give them the confidence required to go to the North East.
What will not give the visitors much confidence is their rather dismal recent away record. Not only did Klopp’s men lose badly to Wolves last time out on the road, but they have won none of their last three travelling fixtures.
Tough place to go
St James’ Park has long been considered anything but an easy place to go, but now more than ever, the North-East venue is not somewhere to pick up easy points.
As things stand, Eddie Howe’s men are one of only two teams to remain unbeaten at home. They have won six and drawn five in their own backyard. In terms of points accumulated, four teams have better home records, but no Premier League team has conceded fewer home goals this term.
It is in fact a lack of goals conceded that lies behind Newcastle’s relative success. The Magpies have given up just six goals on home soil, which means they have conceded a hugely encouraging average of just 0.54 goals per 90 minutes. It is not just goals that they have prevented either, oh no. They don’t give away many chances either, surrendering an average of 0.77 expected goals. Only Manchester City have performed better in that respect.
If Liverpool are to be the first team to win at St James’ Park this season, then they will have to be incredibly clinical, as it’s unlikely that they’ll have chance after chance.
Liverpool languishing on the road
Much of Liverpool’s downfall this season has been down to poor away form. Jurgen Klopp’s men have a typically good home record, so much so that only three Premier League teams have accumulated more home points than the Reds, but on the road, it has been a completely different story.
As things stand, in terms of points accumulated, the visitors have the sixth-worst road record in the Premier League. The big problem in recent times has been a lack of defensive strength when playing away from home. Each of Liverpool’s last three hosts have scored three goals, which is worrying, or encouraging if you are a Newcastle attacker.
Visitors dominate the head-to-head
Liverpool’s recent away record won’t make them feel great, but they do have a positive recent record in this fixture, which could spur them on. When the teams met earlier in the campaign, Liverpool won by two goals to one at Anfield, while they also returned victorious from their last trip to St James’ Park, winning by a goal to nil back in April of last year.
Interestingly, Newcastle have not beaten the Reds since 2015. Even in front of their own fans, the Magpies are without a win against Saturday’s visitors in five attempts. Three of those five have gone the way of Liverpool.
Hosts good enough to get it done
The visitors will be buoyed by their Merseyside Derby win, but their away record is very difficult to get away from. If we consider their pitfalls on the road in conjunction with how strong the Magpies have been at home, then the odds of a Newcastle win with the best and most trustworthy of the GB bookies really start to appeal.
Realistically, the hosts have settled into a winning rhythm at home, winning five of their last seven in all competitions. They have also won five of their last seven home EPL games, conceding just two goals in the process. In their last seven on the road, Liverpool have conceded 15 goals.
There is also a big difference in what the teams produce in terms of xG, and that could be telling on Saturday. While the Magpies have an average expected goal difference of +1.12 at home, the Reds have an average xG difference of -0.15 on the road.
Ex-Toffee to score
Since his move, Anthony Gordon has featured twice from the bench and has made a positive impact, so much so that he could start here. The attack-minded player has wasted no time in his two appearances. He has been direct and has looked eager to score, averaging 3.51 shots and 0.37 xG. Against a visiting defence that has looked very shaky on the road, the ex-Toffee rates as a good bet to notch.
So these are our NUFC vs LFC betting tips for this Premier League game:
- Newcastle to win @ best odds of 6/4 with Bet365 or William Hill.
- Anthony Gordon to score at any time @ 10/3 with Betfred.
Bradley Gibbs is an experienced football writer. He is an expert analyst on Premier League, and all global football leagues & tournaments, for Just Bookies. Bradley has been published by many respected outlets, including USA Betting and the Racing & Football Outlook. He has also written betting strategy guides.