Is the Group 1 1m Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on Saturday a gift for the favourite, trainer John Gosden’s Palace Pier (3.05pm at Ascot)?
The absence of 2,000 Guineas winner Kameko appears to give Frankie Dettori’s mount Palace Pier a good opportunity. The forecast ground is soft but there are some drying conditions expected before race time.
Here is our QE II Stakes preview, predictions and concluding betting tip:
Palace Pier is the main beneficiary of the withdrawal of Kameko due to concerns about the ground which will probably have the word soft in the description. The odds-on favourite was an impressive winner of the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot and has since won at the same level in France.
That Deauville Group 1 win was on heavy ground and Palace Pier is also proven on good. The three pounds weight-for-age allowance will be handy at the business end of the straight mile course at Ascot and could make the difference between winning and losing this race.
Top French trainer Francis Graffard’s The Revenant boasts five wins in six starts. He is a beautifully bred son of Dubawi and there has been a progression from Listed races into Group company but The Revenant has yet to win at the highest level. That said, finishing second behind King Of Change in this race last season is standout form. However, Group 2 races could be his level and Palace Pier is a proven Group 1 performer. The potentially heavy ground at Ascot will be a major positive for The Revenant but the ground will probably not be enough to produce the form to beat Palace Pier over one mile.
Circus Maximus has finished in the first three four times in four races this season, all at Group 1 level. The Aidan O’Brien trained entry produced the best ratings when second behind Mohaather in the Group 1 Sussex Stakes over a mile at Goodwood at the end of July. Both horses carried the same weight, so the margin of defeat of one and a half lengths was outstanding form. Circus Maximus finished almost six lengths behind Palace Pier in his Deauville race. The two pounds weight pull in favour of Circus Maximus should not be enough for Ryan Moore’s mount to win this race.
Nazeef benefits from the mares and fillies allowance of three pounds but that will not provide an advantage over Palace Pier who gets three pounds from the older runners. The John Gosden entry won the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes race for fillies and mares at Newmarket earlier this month, over one mile on heavy ground. Veracious was unplaced, six and a half lengths behind the winner, carrying the same weight. The ground at Ascot should not be an issue so this progressive horse can at least make the frame.
Century Dream was a beaten favourite last time out, in a Group 2 race at Leopardstown over one mile on good ground last month. Winning the Celebration Mile at Goodwood by over four lengths in his previous race on soft ground was a better effort. That form would give him a shout in this race. Century Dream was five and a half lengths behind Persian King (subsequently third in the Arc over a longer trip) at Chantilly in July, in a nine-furlong Group 1. Century Dream has performed well in Group races but not quite at the level required to win a race of this nature. Though he could go well at long odds.
Lord Glitters has run to just about the same level over the last 10 starts so is unlikely to show enough improvement to win this race. He has not won since obliging in the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot last season. The last run at Ayr, finishing second behind Aussie Group 1 winner Addeybb, was a decent effort but it was only a Listed race so Lord Glitters did not beat any horses proven at Group 1 level. The seven-year-old gelding does not receive any allowances and is not good enough to beat Palace Pier giving weight. We can expect another consistent run but Lord Glitters has a fair bit to find to be placed.
Our Preview’s QE II Betting Tips Verdict
Sometimes in racing and betting, there is no value in ignoring the obvious. The Revenant and Circus Maximus are not out of contention on past form but Palace Pier has performed at a higher level. Nazeef should have favoured soft going at Ascot and the Group 1 win at Newmarket was an excellent effort. If you are searching for an outsider then Century Dream can’t be ruled out but PALACE PIER looks a worthy favourite and even at odds-on his profile cannot be ignored. Apologies for the unoriginal odds-on shot, but this our preview’s betting tip:
- Bet on PALACE PIER at 8/11 with Betfair. See the latest updated odds from our top recommended UK-based bookies in the betting comparison table below.
Latest QEII Stakes Betting Odds from Best Bookmakers
|Palace Pier (stall 5)||4/6||4/6||4/6||8/11||8/11||4/6||4/6|
|The Revenant (6)||9/2||9/2||4/1||7/2||7/2||9/2||9/2|
|Circus Maximus (2)||7/1||8/1||9/1||8/1||8/1||8/1||8/1|
|Century Dream (12)||16/1||16/1||18/1||16/1||16/1||18/1||18/1|
|Lord Glitters (13)||20/1||22/1||22/1||25/1||25/1||25/1||20/1|
|Lancaster House (8)||33/1||33/1||40/1||33/1||33/1||33/1||33/1|
|Sir Busker (9)||33/1||40/1||50/1||33/1||33/1||50/1||50/1|
|Dark Vision (11)||50/1||50/1||66/1||50/1||50/1||50/1||50/1|
|Royal Dornoch (7)||33/1||50/1||80/1||50/1||50/1||66/1||50/1|