Last updated August 7th, 2020
There is an odds-on shot in the Group 3 1m2f Rose of Lancaster Stakes 2020 at Haydock on Saturday (2.40pm). However the value may lie elsewhere. Here JustBookies gives our Rose of Lancaster Stakes preview and concludes with our betting tips’ selection.
Global Giant is trained by John Gosden and ridden by Frankie Dettori so potentially has been falsely priced by the top British bookmakers at a shade of odds-on. The trainer is based in Newmarket so makes a relatively rare trip north and many punters back Dettori’s mounts blindly. Gosden does not have entries in any other race on the card so clearly travels with a favourite’s chance.
Global Giant does not have the highest Official Rating (111) but was an impressive winner of a Listed race over the same distance at Newbury 20 days ago. Extra Elusive, who goes here too, was a length adrift in second place off the same terms.
Zaaki (OR 112) has a slight edge on ratings over Global Giant. The Sir Michael Stoute trained runner has won on the projected going of good to firm and at this level and the yard is in good form. The horse’s standout form was at Newmarket in a Group 2 race over one mile last September. Zaaki finished in third place, six and a quarter lengths behind Benbatl carrying the same weight. That horse is a Group 1 winner and ran well in good races in Dubai at the start of the year. Zaaki also finished five and a half lengths behind Mohaather in the Summer Mile at Ascot in July off level weights. That horse won the Group 1 Sussex Stakes at Goodwood last week. So his form has a solid look.
Extra Elusive has a length to make up on Global Giant on the basis of that Newbury run last month. However, the post-race commentary implied that the winner never looked in danger of being overhauled. Therefore, it is feasible to downgrade Extra Elusive’s form in comparison with Global Giant. The horse has been consistent in six starts, running to almost the exact rating without winning a race. There is no evidence to suggest that Extra Elusive can find the improvement to beat the Gosden-trained favourite.
Fox Tal is just one pound inferior to Global Giant on ratings but can be backed at 10/1 to win this Rose of Lancaster Stakes, while the best price on the favourite is evens. However, the King Power Racing owned runner has been below his best in two runs this season. The horse contested the Newbury race that featured Global Giant and Extra Elusive. Fox Tal finished eighth of nine runners and seven lengths behind Global Giant. The Sea The Stars colt was prominent in a Listed race at Royal Ascot but drifted well out of contention in the final furlong. Fox Tal must be watched before being backed because something appears to be amiss with trainer Andrew Balding’s charge this summer.
Certain Lad is the only runner who has winning form at Haydock. However, the success in a Class 3 handicap last July produced a rating that if replicated would not be good enough to win at the track this weekend. The gelding has shown steady improvement over the last year but it will take a career best to win this Group 3 event. The second place finish in a lucrative handicap at York last month was a decent effort. However, Certain Lad’s weight in that race suggests there is not the potential to beat proven Group-race performers carrying the same weight.
There are seven declarations and Morisco is well off the pace in terms of form and ratings. Crossed Baton, Gosden’s second string, did have frame prospects in a field of eight runners or more but there are only two each-way payout places.
Global Giant and Extra Elusive are fairly closely matched on that Newbury form in a Class 1 Listed race. Fox Tal appears to be a horse in decline and Certain Lad is not good enough to win a Group race. Therefore, ZAAKI is the runner with least to prove and can prevail in the Rose of Lancaster Stakes. So the betting tip for this Rose of Lancaster 2020 preview is:
- Back Zaaki to win at the current best odds of 9/2 as shown in odds comparison table below.
Compare Rose of Lancaster Betting Odds from Top Bookies
Each-Way Place Terms: 1/4 odds 1,2; Click odds to visit bookie; Best odds in bold.
|Global Giant (drawn 4)||5/6||10/11||1/1||10/11||10/11||1/1||5/6|
|Extra Elusive (3)||13/2||11/2||11/2||9/2||9/2||6/1||6/1|
|Fox Tal (6)||9/1||9/1||9/1||8/1||8/1||9/1||9/1|
|Crossed Baton (2)||14/1||14/1||14/1||12/1||12/1||14/1||14/1|
|Certain Lad (7)||14/1||12/1||12/1||12/1||12/1||12/1||12/1|