Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs look to hoist the Lombardi trophy for the second time in as many years while Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Tom Brady seeks his seventh Super Bowl victory in his tenth attempt (11.30pm UK time, Sunday; TV: Live on Sky Sports).
Brady makes his first Super Bowl appearance with Tampa in his first season with the team. This will only be the franchise’s second appearance ever and they won the first time.
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs look to win back-to-back Super Bowls. They would be the first repeat champions in the NFL since the Patriots won Super Bowl 38 and 39 in 2004 and 2005. This is the matchup we have all been waiting for. It was inevitable that Tom Brady made it back to the big game. The most successful and arguably the greatest quarterback in NFL history against the young gun who looks poised to take that title.
This will be a rematch of Week 12. The Chiefs were able to win that matchup 27-24, but the Buccaneers were able to cover the bookies’ spread on the game. Tyreek Hill torched Tampa for 13 receptions, three touchdowns and 269 yards. He had 210 receiving yards in the first half, which was tied for most in a first half since 1991. Hill led the team in receiving yards and was behind only Kelce in both receiving yards and receptions during the regular season. He continued to show off his freakish speed and stretched the field during their playoff run. He led the Chiefs yet again in receiving yards during the postseason.
If the Bucs want to remain in this game they will need to attempt to slow Hill down and this explosive passing attack. One way to do this is to get pressure on the quarterback. If the Bucs are going to square up and attempt to play man coverage they will need to bring the blitz and disrupt Patrick Mahomes’ rhythm.
They were able to get after Aaron Rodgers, which was a big reason for their victory in the NFC Championship game. They sacked the Green Bay quarterback five times and were able to force one interception. Pass rush specialists Shaquil Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul caused havoc throughout the game. Barrett led the team with three sacks on the day and JPP added two of his own. I expect these two to wreak havoc once again against a depleted Chiefs’ line.
The Tampa pass rush could be the key to the game once again this week. Their 42.3% blitz rate was the third highest in the NFL during the regular season and was one of the key factors to their defensive success for much of the year.
During the regular season they averaged 2.9 sacks per game, which was tied for the fifth most. Outside linebacker Shaquil Barrett was second in the NFL in the amount of times that he was brought on the blitz (121). Fellow linebacker Devin White was ninth in the league in blitz attempts (95). Between Jason Pierre-Paul (9.5 sacks in the regular season), Barrett (8.0 sacks), and White (9.0 sacks) the Buccaneers have a plethora of weapons to harass Patrick Mahomes and help disrupt their highly successful passing attack.
The Buccaneers’ pass rush versus a banged up Chiefs’ offensive line on paper looks to be the biggest mismatch of the game. The Chiefs lost starting tackle Eric Fisher to a torn Achilles in their AFC Championship win over the Bills. He was the best and most experienced offensive lineman left on the team. Fisher started every game except Week 17 against the Chargers when the Chiefs rested a majority of their starters. I don’t think the loss of the veteran Fisher can be emphasized enough.
Left tackle is the most important position on the offensive line. They are tasked with watching the quarterback’s blindside. This will now be up to right tackle Mike Remmers who will be flipping to the other side of the field. Remmers has Super Bowl experience from his time with the Carolina Panthers. He was manhandled in Super Bowl 50 when the Panthers played the Denver Broncos and he had to go up against Von Miller. Remmers gave up seven quarterback pressures and allowed two sacks. I envision a similar performance for him come Sunday.
The healthy offensive linemen remaining are inexperienced to say the least and could struggle mightily against a dominant Tampa rush in the biggest game of their lives. The line is currently made up of Remmers at left tackle (0 LT snaps since ’16), Nick Allegretti at left guard (seventh round pick), Austin Reiter at center (seventh round pick), Stefen Wisniewski right guard (cut by Pittsburgh in November) and Andrew Wiley at right tackle (undrafted free agent guard). Four of the five have been cut multiple times. The only one who hasn’t been released multiple times is Nick Allegretti who was drafted by the team last year.
Our Preview’s Super Bowl LV Betting Tips Verdict
I am going to be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the Super Bowl in their home stadium, which would be quite historic. This is the first time that a team will be playing in their own stadium. I would recommend playing the moneyline instead of taking the points, which seems to be +3pts in most spots now after opening at +3.5.
The spread generally does not come into play when betting the Super Bowl. The straight up winner of the big game is 45-6-3 against the spread. So either the favorite wins and covers or the dog wins outright, which would cover the +3pts spread. If you think that the underdog is good enough to keep the game within a field goal then you are better off just betting them to win the game at odds against.
In the Super Bowl, no dog of six points or fewer has ever covered the spread without winning the game. I think the Tampa front will be able to create enough havoc that will lead to several sacks and possibly a few turnovers. This should be able to keep them in the game. I think Tom Brady’s experience and all of Tampa’s offensive weapons will be able to score at will to keep pace with the high-flying Chiefs and they will ultimately win the game outright. So this is JustBookies’ Super Bowl betting tip for this preview:
- Bet on Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win @ best odds of 7/5 with Betfred.
- Check out all Super Bowl betting odds here.
Alex Uplinger is well known as an authoritative NFL writer. He also has expertise in his other specialist sport, college basketball. As well as writing for JustBookies, Alex co-hosts and produces American Football podcasts for Blue Wire Network and Full Slate. He contributes to other top sites such as USAbetting.