After their disappointing FA Cup defeat to Championship opposition, Spurs will look to bounce back in the Premier League against Everton at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Monday evening (8pm; TV: Live on Sky Sports).
The visitors stand between them and a much-needed three points. Can the hosts get the job done? Or will it be the Toffees who pick up an important result? This preview plans to answer those questions before deciding on some betting tips.
Had it not been for that FA Cup defeat, the hosts would’ve come into this fixture feeling good. Last time out in the EPL, they hammered in four against a struggling Leeds side, a game after which things were looking reasonably rosy for Antonio Conte’s men. In football things soon change and instead of heading into this game with their heads held high, the Spurs boys arrive here under pressure and in desperate need of a result. Not only did they lose at Middlesbrough last Tuesday, but they lost without scoring, having delivered something of a lacklustre performance.
Fortunately for Conte and his side, The Toffees are struggling, so much so that there is now only four points separating them and the dreaded drop-zone. The appointment of Rafa Benitez was supposed to bring about stability, if not success, though there has been nothing stable about Everton this term. Monday’s visitors are finding it tough to keep their heads above water, and if improvements aren’t made soon, they could well be sucked under by the unforgiving Premier League undercurrent.
Home win needed
Not only do Spurs need to win following that dismal defeat on Teesside, but they also need to appease the crowd at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, where they’ve lost each of their last two, coming up short against both Southampton and Wolves. Prior to those defeats, the hosts had won four out of five in the Premier League, while their overall profile at home this term looks respectable. Conte’s men have won seven, drawn one and lost four in front of their own fans.
From a creativity point of view, there has not been a lot wrong with what Monday’s hosts have done on their own patch in recent times, producing a healthy average of 2.12 expected goals. Since Conte took the reins, they have also scored a pleasing total of 14 goals when surrounded by the comforts of home, averaging 2.00 per game. That is 1.17 goals more per match than Everton have managed on the road.
Playing on the road has brought Everton next to no joy this season. They have won just one of their 12 travelling fixtures, losing eight of the other 11. Such a record is that of relegation fodder, which whether they like it or not, is a category that the Toffees are rather rapidly falling into. Scoring goals has been an issue, as a total of ten in 12 suggests, while they’ve been weak at the back too, conceding 23 times away from the comforts of Goodison Park.
Creativity has also been an issue. Only three Premier League team have created more expected goals than Everton on the road. The visitors also average a reasonably subdued 3.67 shots on target per 90 minutes on the road, which is bottom-half stuff at best.
THFC vs EFC Potential Betting Tips
With both teams not exactly in scintillating form right now, it would be easy to look at the early odds and say what the hell, before having a small play on the visitors at what could be construed as attractive odds, but if this preview digs a little deeper, Everton make little appeal.
As touched on above, Spurs offer up an average of 2.12 expected goals for at home under Conte, which dwarfs away-day average of 0.95 xG for. Such numbers make it hard to plump for an away win, even at odds of 5/1.
The visitors are without a win away against top-half teams this season, four of which they have lost. They are yet to keep a clean sheet against such opposition, conceding two or more in four out of six.
If we throw in the xG numbers produced by Spurs at home, alongside the fact that the hosts have scored two or more in six out of seven Premier League home games since Antonio Conte took over, then the bet that starts to really stand out is ‘Tottenham to Win & Over 1.5 Goals’.
Kulusevksi to keep his cool once again
Nobody in a Spurs shirt covered themselves in glory last Tuesday, including Kulusevksi, who flattered to deceive coming off the left-hand side, but his performances in the league since joining have been impressive.
The dynamic winger has shown that he possesses both the ability to create and the ability to score goals, notching against both Manchester City and Leeds United, while he also came close against Burnley.
Much of the focus will always be on Son and Kane when Spurs are in action, but opposition defences paying such heavy attention to that deadly duo could see the Swede freed up. As he is already averaging 0.54 goals per 90 minutes, not to mention 0.43 expected goals per game, odds of 21/10 on the ex-Juventus man getting on the scoresheet are hard to pass up.
- Tottenham to Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 5/6 with BetVictor.
- Dejan Kulusevski to score at any time @ 21/10 with William Hill and Bet365.
Bradley Gibbs is an experienced football writer. He is an expert analyst on Premier League, and all global football leagues & tournaments, for Just Bookies. Bradley has been published by many respected outlets, including USA Betting and the Racing & Football Outlook. He has also written betting strategy guides.