Last updated October 24th, 2020
The curtain comes down on Group 1 races for the Flat season with the nine-runner 2020 Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes at Doncaster on Saturday (2.55pm; TV: Live on ITV4). Keep reading for our preview of the big two-year-old event, along with a confident betting tips’ selection.
The race, formerly known as the Racing Post Trophy, has been informative in recent years as the last three victors have won the 2,000 Guineas the following spring.
One trainer tends to farm it and Wembley is handled by that man. Aidan O’Brien has won the race nine times including in 2011, 2017 and 2018 with horses that then won the 2,000 Guineas the next season. So, he generally sends one of his best young colts to Doncaster and Wembley seems to fit that bill. The son of Galileo has only won once in seven starts but has finished second in the most prestigious races for two-year-old colts in the UK and Ireland, the Dewhurst and National Stakes. In four maidens and two Group 1 races, Wembley has been placed and can maintain that record or better at Doncaster. A worthy favourite with the primary British online sports betting sites, jockey Ryan Moore’s mount has the form and rating to win for the first time at the highest level.
One Ruler is somewhat behind Wembley on form but is progressive and bridging the gap is not impossible. The second favourite has improved for each run but now runs in a Group 1 race for the first time. The form of the Group 3 win over one mile at Newmarket this form is solid and Megallan was one of the beaten horses. The distance and going at Doncaster are manageable and One Ruler is expected to take another step forward but it might not be enough to win
King Vega has been second in both starts so is one of just two maidens in the field. The runner-up by one and a quarter lengths behind Etonian in a Group 3 race at Sandown in July needs big improvement to be competitive with Wembley and One Ruler. However, Etonian did beat One Ruler by three and a quarter lengths in a Sandown maiden in July which brings King Vega into the mix on collateral form. However, One Ruler is now proven in Group company and King Vega is more about potential than proven form on the track.
State Of Rest is trained by Joseph O’Brien, son of Aidan, and will be ridden by Tom Marquand who is at the top of his game. However, the trainer and jockey combination may not be enough for State Of Rest to beat the two market leaders. The Irish entry won his maiden at Fairyhouse in June but has subsequently not won in four starts. State Of Rest was third beaten one length by the winner, Chindit, in a Group 2 race over seven furlongs at Doncaster last month. Chindit was well behind but had no luck in running in the Dewhurst Stakes so we can upgrade State Of Rest’s form. However, even with a clear run Chindit would not have got close to Wembley in that race.
Megallan has three and a half lengths to make up with One Ruler from the Newmarket race and that is unlikely in a Group 1 of this nature. However, the John Gosden juvenile did not have a clear run and is better value than the losing margin in that race. Megallan is progressing for each run and his sire Kingman won four Group 1 races over one mile. Gosden could probably have picked from a number of decent two-year-old colts so must believe Megallan is good enough. However, beating One Ruler looks beyond him on racecourse form.
Cobh has won two listed races and was only beaten a couple of lengths in the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes on his last start at Newmarket last month. He was just one and a quarter lengths behind Chindit in second in a listed event over seven furlongs at Ascot in July. Cobh was only beaten inside the final furlong and on collateral form is closely matched with State Of Rest. There has been progression over four career starts but Cobh could be found out in a race of this quality. However, that piece of form behind Chindit is a positive and Cobh has the potential to make the frame at double-figure odds.
Of the others, Mac Swiney was well beaten by Wembley in the National Stakes and Baradar and Emperor Supreme are not good enough on form.
Our Preview’s Vertem Futurity Trophy Betting Tips Conclusion & Advice
One Ruler needs more progression to prevail while King Vega has not shown enough on the track to finish ahead of One Ruler. State Of Rest is behind Wembley on form while Megallan has too much to do to beat One Ruler. Cobh offers the each-way value but WEMBLEY is fancied to win the race for the tenth time for Aidan O’Brien. So JustBookies’ Vertem Security Trophy review is advising this bet:
- Bet on Wembley @ 2/1 with BetVictor. Also, keep an eye on the odds table for the race (below) as the betting is sure to change.
Compare Vertem Futurity Betting Odds From UK’s Trustworthy Bookies
|Wembley (stall 6)||7/4||13/8||7/4||13/8||13/8||6/4||13/8|
|One Ruler (8)||10/3||3/1||3/1||16/5||16/5||10/3||3/1|
|King Vega (9)||15/2||15/2||15/2||7/1||7/1||15/2||15/2|
|State Of Rest (2)||10/1||9/1||10/1||9/1||9/1||10/1||9/1|
|Mac Swiney (7)||12/1||12/1||11/1||11/1||11/1||12/1||12/1|
|Emperor Supreme (4)||250/1||150/1||250/1||200/1||200/1||100/1||150/1|